Apr 2, 2021

MLB Game Day Recap: Day 1

Well, it took all of 0 games until we had Major League Baseball announce our first game postponement due to COVID-19. While we are going to get far closer to 162 in 2021 than we did in 2020 the virus is still here and operational, ready to any team or person at any time. I don't want to start off the first of these daily recaps with such a bummer topic, but I didn't get to watch Jacob deGrom pitch against Max Scherzer because someone did something that didn't put their own health and the health of those around them, their teammates, first. Not only did we not get this matchup today, we're not going to get it any time soon as contact tracing has already brought back multiple confirmed cases among players on the Nationals. It's going to get uglier as we as a nation insist this pandemic is over when it simply isn't. On to the good stuff.

CLE @ DET (Bieber @ Boyd) - Out of all the Opening Day games, this one was supposed to be the most predictable. We got Shane Bieber looking like he was making his first start after Spring Training. He struck out a dozen but also gave up an opposite field dinger to Miguel Cabrera as he pitched through snowy conditions and took the loss. Matthew Boyd looked good and got the win, but his K/BB of 0.50 suggests he's still the same Matthew Boyd under the hood, he just got to face one of the lamest duck offenses to start the season. Gregory Soto got the save, but he gave up a 2 run shot to Roberto Perez that was a no doubter and while his velocity is up, this outing did nothing to make me more confident in him as the primary 9th inning option. Keep Bryan Garcia on your radar, and if you have bench spots he's a stash I'd be making. Cesar Hernandez had the only other XBH for Cleveland and only he and Jose Ramirez reached base multiple times for Cleveland. Robbie Grossman had 3 walks and did exactly what he should do as a leadoff hitter, if you're in an OBP league you might want to get Grossman on your roster sooner rather than later.

TOR @ NYY (Ryu @ Cole) - Each team scored early before the starters could become their settled in selves, as Lourdes Gurriel Jr. drove in Teoscar Hernandez in the top of the 2nd while Gary Sanchez hit a 2-run dong in the bottom of the inning. Sanchez reached base 3 times and if you are going to make any gigantic leaps due to Opening Day results, Gary Sanchez making contact going forward is one leap I'd want to come true. Clint Frazier reached base 3 times too and Mike Tauchman pinch ran for Sanchez and stole two bases in the 9th. The deployment of Tauchman might have been matchup based as Jordan Romano isn't a guy who is known to hold baserunners well. Teoscar Hernandez hit a solo shot in the 6th after scoring on the Gurriel single in the 2nd and anyone who was worried a slow start might lead to reduced at bats (me) can breath a sight of relief. The Yankees bullpen usage was surprising, as Nick Nelson took the loss after allowing a Randall Grichuk RBI double in the 10th when Aroldis Chapman never appeared and Nelson was only the 4th Yankees pitcher of the game. Romano picked up the win after Rafael Dolis pitched the 8th and Julian Merryweather struck out the side in order in the 10th. Cole and Ryu both with 5.1 giving up 2 runs with Cole getting 8 K's and Ryu 5.

PIT @ CHC (Kuhl @ Hendricks) - Ke'Bryan Hayes picked up where he left off last year with a first inning 2 run bomb of Kyle Hendricks, and the Pirates chased him after the 3rd. Surprisingly enough, Chad Kuhl also got chased after 3 as both starters did not look particularly good. It makes sense with Kuhl, but seeing Hendricks not be able to handle this Pirates lineup early is as big of a cause for concern as a poor Opening Day performance can be from a weak contact starter on a team that is not expected to be good. The Pirates somehow managed a 2 hitter behind Duane Underwood Jr., Clay Holmes, Sam Howard, David Bednar, Chris Stratton and Richard Rodriguez. Wilson Contreras stole a base and drove in a run, while Adam Frazier drove in 2 for the Buccos while stealing a base. Given how 15 pitchers were used across both teams, it will be interesting to see how bullpen usage flows if the starting pitching gives up runs early on Saturday, although both teams should be able to weather the storm pretty easily.

MIN @ MIL (Maeda @ Woodruff) - Another game where both Opening Day starters couldn't make it 5.0 innings. Woodruff got hit all over the place allowing 3 runs on 6 hits over 4.0 innings while walking 2. Woodruff didn't allow an extra base hit, but he allowed plenty of baserunners and did not look sharp at all. Maeda didn't fare much better as he also allowed 6 hits and 2 walks, but only allowed 2 runs and got one out in the 4th before being pulled. Alex Colome blew the game immediately in the 9th, with his own throwing error leading to 3 unearned runs. Perhaps surprising, but Hansel Robles pitched the 8th and Taylor Rogers was nowhere to be found as Randy Dobnak to the loss in the 10th. Freddy Peralta pitched the 5th and the 6th and confused his fantasy owners as he was slated to be the 5th starter to open this season, but when you realize there is a day off tomorrow there are still 6 days until Peralta's next start and he was simply used as the long man because he was the best arm available, no cause for concern in my eyes. Travis Shaw and Omar Narvaez both looked good combining for 4 hits and 4 RBIs while on the Twins side not only did Byron Buxton steal a base and hit a homer, but he walked, twice. If there is a pipe dream, it's the walking Byron Buxton, maybe it will happen this year? Luis Arraez reached base 3 times out of the leadoff spot and quietly is one going to hit for average and score a ton of runs this year while being 2B, 3B, and OF eligible and he's owned in around 20% of leagues which is far too few.

ATL @ PHI (Fried @ Nola) - This game actually felt right. Fried put up a near clone of Gerrit Cole's start allowing 6 hits, 2 walks and 2 earned while striking out 8 over 5.0 innings missing a pure clone by one out in the 6th. Aaron Nola looked like the Cy Young contender he always is going 6 scoreless innings only to give up a single to Christian Pache and 2 run shot to Pablo Sandoval when he couldn't finish the 7th. Acuna Jr. was the only Brave to reach base more than once which the ultimate downfall as Nate Jones allowed a 2 out RBI single to Jean Segura in the 9th, after Chris Martin pitched the 8th and Will Smith pitched the 9th in a tied game. On the Phillies side, Archie Bradley was deployed to get the final out in the 7th which does not bode well for his save chances as Jose Alvarado pitched the 8th and Hector Neris the 9th before Connor Brogdon picked up the win after a scoreless top of the 10th.

TEX @ KC (Gibson @ Keller) - Oh god, this game did not have any pitching. Kyle Gibson gave up 5 runs in 0.1 innings yet left with the lead as his counterpart Brad Keller gave up 6 runs in 1.1 innings. If you starter Kyle Gibson, well, you knew this was possible but this type of disaster is not supposed to happen in a Brad Keller start. I was buying him all off season but I am immediately regretting that as when you allow over twice as many hits as you get outs and you're the starter, things are not good. Everyone on these offenses scored a bunch and drove in a bunch as no pitchers could pitch, but I don't need to tell you it's not time to buy anyone on these teams until they play a team with a real pitching staff. Of notes with the bullpen, Wade Davis picked up the save as Greg Holland was looking like 2018 Greg Holland.

TB @ MIA (Glasnow @ Alcantara) - This game was exactly what it should have been, as Glasnow and Alcantara were unhittable and the only reason this game didn't go to extras was Austin Meadows got into one off Yimi Garcia. Only Jesus Aguilar and Brandon Lowe reached based more than once as Lowe got the only other XBH of the game with a double off Alcantara. The Rays bullpen performed as expected with Pete Fairbanks pitching the 8th and Diego Castillo shutting down the side in the 9th.

STL @ CIN (Flaherty @ Castillo) - This game was supposed to go exactly as the Tampa Bay/Miami game, but it did not. Flaherty gave up 2 bombs Nick Castellanos and Eugenio Suarez while Castillo gave up 10 runs in 3.1 innings. I'm not really sure why Cincinnati didn't pull Castillo earlier with an entirely fresh bullpen, but I'm just a writer I guess. Alex Reyes pitched the 9th and while it was not a save situation, he was declared closer by Mike Shildt earlier in the day. Goldschmidt got 4 hits and scored 3 runs, Arenado scored once on two hits, and Dylan Carlson picked up a walk to go with his 3 run shot. I quick note that while this was an offensive explosion game, Jonathan India going 2 for 4 in his debut is definitely something to monitor, as is Nick Senzel leaving the game early with an injury which seems like it's as much of an April tradition as Opening Day itself.

LAD @ COL (Kershaw @ Marquez) - Man, the Dodgers looked as bad as the Dodgers could possibly look, as Kershaw got dinked and dunked for 10 hits and 5 earned over 5.2. German Marquez was effectively wild allowing 6 hits and 6 walks over 4.0 IP yet only allowed a single run. Chi Chi Gonzalez was an ineffective bridge who got the win despite allowing 3 runs on 5 hits over 2.0 innings with Daniel Bard striking out 2, and allowing 2 base runners while picking up the save. Chris Owings won the Opening Day Emilio Bonifacio award for the most effective fantasy game by a multi-positional utility player going 3 for 3 with 2 steals, 3 run, 1 RBI and 1 BB. Every starting Rockie outside of Marquez reached base at least once while every Dodgers (including Kershaw!) reached base twice except Justin Turner (once) and Austin Barnes (none). Barnes also left the game in the due to a cut on his throwing hand so it will be interesting to see if he makes his way onto the IL and we get our first big time prospect call with a short run for Keibert Ruiz.

ARZ @ SDP (Bumgarner @ Darvish) - Like many of these Opening Day aces, both Bumgarner and Darvish got knocked around and didn't see the end of the 5th. Stefon Crichton gave up a run out of the pen in the 6th which is excellent news for Joakim Soria owners as he was nowhere near the 9th. Pagan-Pomeranz-Melancon allowed 1 base runner while striking out 4 in the 7th-8th-9th. Tatis Jr. and Machado struggled despite the offense lighting up Madbum as they went a combined 1 for 10 with 4 strikeouts. Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers both went deep while Victor Caratini drove in 3. If Caratini is available in your league, get him on your roster as soon as possible, he's going to take the starting job and never look back. Ketel Marte went 4 for 5 with a homer and 2 runs scored while Asdrubal Cabrera hit 5th and drove in 3 with a dinger. Tim Locastro got a surprise dinger off the bench is should be someone to keep on your radar with his speed and on base skill. Carson Kelly had a pinch hit single after Stephen Vogt started, which is an excellent sign for a top 10 dynasty catching asset who didn't get an Opening Day start.

HOU @ OAK (Greinke @ Bassitt) - Greinke looked like the future Hall of Famer that he is, allowing only 3 base runners over 6 innings. Chris Bassitt looked to match him through the first time through the order, but Bregman grounded in a run in the 4th and Yordan Alvarez drove in two on a double in the 6th to chase Bassitt before the 6th. Brantley & Bregman took Adam Kolarek deep in the 7th to seal the game for the Astros. They knocked in another 3 in the 8th to put the game away 8-1. 2021 could be the season where the Astros feel the boos at the ballpark as opposed to 2020, but they most certainly did not on Opening Day.

CHW @ LAA (Giolito @ Bundy) - Giolito was absolutely terrific except for a dinger to dead center by Max Stassi. Dylan Bundy far more mediocre allowing a two run shot to Adam Eaton over 6.0 innings. The White Sox bullpen, which looked on paper like it was one of the best in the league, was a huge Bummer and gave up the lead in the 8th on an infield single, throwing error on Nick Madrigal, Mike Trout single, Anthony Rendon K, Justin Upton walk, and then an RBI groundout by Albert Pujols. Raisel Iglesias pitched a clean 9th and the White Sox completely blew a gem from Lucas Giolito. Moncada and Trout both reached base 3 times, and while Trout doing this is typical and nothing out of the ordinary, Moncada doing this gives hopes to those who saw his 2020 as a product of his COVID-19 diagnosis with 2021 being a return to his 2019 self.

SF @ SEA (Gausman @ Gonzales) - If there was a start today that made someone look like the star they just might be, it was Kevin Gausman. 6 K's, 2 hits, 2 walks and 1 earned over 6.2 made Kevin look like the ace he's supposed to be. His counterpart Marco Gonzales looked far more mortal, pretending it was 2014 again letting both Evan Longoria and Buster Posey connect on dingers in addition to Austin Slater. Matt Wisler and Jarlin Garcia combined to walk 3 in the 7th and then submariner Tyler Rogers gave up a two run double and then just like in the Angels game, an infield error by Brandon Belt on a sure fire double play ball causes his team to blow a lead and the game. Another gem wasted here for Gausman. The one good thing for Giants fans is that Jake McGee and Reyes Moronta weren't the ones to blow this game, but at the same time one has to wonder why one of them weren't called upon in the 7th to save the game when there was still a lead to save. Every Mariner reached base despite Gausman allowing 4 baserunners of 6.2 innings. The Giants simply can't blow these kind of games if they want to compete, which they seemingly are telling their fan base they are trying to do. All that complaining said, Rafael Montero immediately blew the game to a pinch hit home run from Alex Dickerson. The game went to extras after the actually good reliever Jake McGee pitched the 9th for the Giants, but in the 10th they avoided pitching their other actually good reliever Reyes Moronta so naturally Jose Alvarez walked his fellow lefty Taylor Trammell and then Dylan Moore to load the bases Jake Fraley to lose the game. This was the ugliest game of the night and our first gigantic bullpen meltdown of the year.

Today was definitely interesting in terms of extra inning usage, as every team had fresh a fresh bullpen yet we saw the likes of Nick Nelson, Nate Jones, Randy Dobnak take 10th inning losses instead of seeing Aroldis Chapman, Amir Garrett and Taylor Rogers get extra inning usage. Since I started this article on a negative tone, I'll end it on a positive one. I love baseball. I am thrilled baseball is back. I cannot wait for more tomorrow. And the next day. And the day after. And the day after that. This is the greatest game on earth. I'm so happy we've got a realistic shot at 162. Goodnight.

  • Follow James on Twitter @whatmoney3000 for his deep league dynasty rankings and all his live takes before you skim this nice long article.

Jan 6, 2021

2021 Dynasty Start-up Rankings: WR

  So I think I am settling into a post every other day?  Maybe once I spit these final rankings I will be easier to write think pieces on individual players as opposed to big long lists that look really fun but also are very difficult to pinpoint and will be largely wrong.  Either way, it's post #4 this year which is more posts than we've had in the past 4 years so it's coming along just fine.

 Looks like I am settling into a post every other day, which means it could become a post every three or four days, and then fade into nothing this.  My current mindset is that is not that case and that once these final rankings are spit out it will be easier to write individualized pieces on certain players or groupings of players than it is to make the big, long lists.  Either way, this is post #4 on the year which is three more posts than we had all over the past four years so things are coming along just fine in my head.

Tier 1
1. Justin Jefferson - age 22
2. DK Metcalf - age 23
3. AJ Brown - age 24
4. Calvin Ridley - age 26
5. Davante Adams - age 28

This is probably the first list where I'm going to deviate heavily from the industry consensus, as not only is Tyreek Hill not in my top 5 he doesn't make my top tier, and that's the first thing people will notice.  The second, more glaring response is I think Justin Jefferson is already there.  I'm not dealing anyone for him and I think it's time to buy his stock from now until the season starts.  Metcalf and Brown are really 1B and 1C but their age differences give them an ever so slight drop off.  Ridley appears to be an absolute monster for years to come, but a looming move-on from Matt Ryan stunts his value slightly.  Adams is your #1 redraft WR but entering his age 28 season means his high end value run is closer to an end than anyone wants to admit.


Tier 2
6. CeeDee Lamb - age 22
7. Tyreek Hill - age 27
8. Ja'Marr Chase - age 21
9. Devonta Smith - age 22
10. Terry McLaurin - age 25
11. Stefon Diggs - age 27

Lamb's situation is heavily tired to Dak Prescott, but it's so appealing that the minute chance of a new QB in Dallas really doesn't affect his ranking much.  Tyreek, while still in the top 10, has red flags that I don't think anyone wants to admit, as his game is entirely speed based and tied to having Kelce as the dominate threat underneath.  The odds of Tyreek losing a step, Kelce losing his dominance, or some other dent in the Kansas City offense's armor is closer on the horizon than anyone will admit.  I'm not buying the long-term #1 offense status in KC (I'll buy top 5 or top 10).  Chase and Smith we still don't have teams so they are hard to rank, but they certainly are elite talents.  McLaurinF1 is a Davante Adams level weapon and all he needs is a QB, or maybe he doesn't need that at all.  Diggs will remain consistently around the top 10 and easily could rank higher, but I just couldn't find a way to get him in the top 10.


Tier 3
12. Amari Cooper - age 27
13. Mike Evans - age 27
14. Chase Claypool - age 23
15. Tee Higgins - age 22
16. Diontae Johnson - age 25
17. DeAndre Hopkins - age 29
18. Michael Thomas - age 28
19. Keenan Allen - age 29
20. DJ Moore - age 24
21. Chris Godwin - age 25
22. Tyler Boyd - age 26
23. Kenny Golladay - age 27

Cooper and Evans are tied to elite offenses and have shown they can be WR1s, but they also have questions as to whether they will remain the focal point of their teams offense moving forward.  Claypool and Higgins project to grow under offenses that should get better.  Johnson's drops are way overstated and the bigger threat to his value is the loss of Big Ben (and not having a suitable replacement).  Hopkins, Thomas and Allen are elite, but also aging quickly and in dynasty that is always a factor.  Moore seems to be trending towards a Brandin Cooks career where his numbers are always great but he somehow never seems to be a true top end WR.  Godwin, Boyd and Golladay have all shown flashes of being on the top end, but with age no longer clearly on their side.


Tier 4
24. DJ Chark - age 24
25. Rashod Bateman - age 21
26. Rondale Moore - age 21
27. Allen Robinson - age 27
28. Jerry Jeudy - age 22
29. Odell Beckham Jr - age 28
30. Will Fuller V - age 27
31. Gabriel Davis - age 22
32. Laviska Shenault - age 22
33. Chris Olave - age 21
34. Jaylen Waddle - age 22
35. JuJu Smith-Schuster - age 24
36. Justyn Ross - age 21
37. Terrace Marshall - age 21
38. Tyler Lockett - age 28
39. Adam Thielen - age 30

The drop off between Tier 3 and Tier 4 is pretty heavy as there are plenty of reasons to have concern or optimism here.  Youth is readily available, as are dependable veterans, but no one in this tier has a "must draft me" sign strapped to their back.


Tier 5
40. Courtland Sutton - age 25
41. Brandin Cooks - age 27
42. Corey Davis - age 26
43 Marquise Brown - age 24
44. DeVante Parker - age 28
45 Christian Kirk - age 24
46. Jamison Crowder - age 28
47. Curtis Samuel - age 25
48. Robert Woods - age 29
49. Julio Jones - age 32
50. Cooper Kupp - age 28
51. Preston Williams - age 24
52. Jalen Reagor - age 22
53. KJ Hamler - age 22
54. Henry Ruggs - age 22
55. Amon-ra St. Brown - age 21
56. Tylan Wallace - age 22
57. Tamorrion Terry - age 21
58. Darnell Mooney - age 23
59. Tutu Atwell - age 21
60. Denzel Mims - age 23
61. Seth Williams - age 21
62. Michael Pittman Jr. - age 23
63. Amari Rodgers - age 21
64. Dyami Brown - age 21

There's a whole bunch of "well if [Team X] doesn't sign anyone new or [Player Y] signs with this team or [Player Z] gets drafted into a good situation" in this tier.  It''s just hard to predict those things going right for everyone.



Tier 6
65. Deebo Samuel - age 25
66. Michael Gallup - age 25
67. Jarvis Landry - age 28
68. Robby Anderson - age 28
69. Darius Slayton - age 24
70. Keke Coutee - age 24
71. TY Hilton - age 31
72. Mecole Hardman - age 23
73. Nico Collins - age 21
74. Anthony Schwartz - age 21
75. Mike Williams - age 26
76. Parris Campbell - age 24
77. Devin Duvernay - age 23
78. Cole Beasley - age 32
79. Russell Gage - age 25
80. Sterling Shepard - age 28
81. John Brown - age 31
82. Jakobi Meyers - age 24

Things are getting bleaker here, but you can still find optimism.  I'm just finding more pessimism than optimism.


Tier 7
83. Donovan Peoples-Jones - age 22
84. Bryan Edwards - age 22
85. N'Keal Harry - age 23
86. Quintez Cephus - age 23
87. Dazz Newsome - age 22
88. Ihmir Smith-Marsette - age 22
89. Damonte Coxie - age 22
90. Kadarius Toney - age 22
91. Trevon Grimes - age 22
92. Marlon Williams - age 22
93. Sage Surratt - age 23
94. Marvin Jones - age 31

It's the tier of unknown youth and Marvin Jones unknown free agency landing spot.


Tier 8
95. Allen Lazard - age 25
96. Tyler Johnson - age 23
97. Travis Fulgham - age 25
98. Van Jefferson - age 25
99. James Washington - age 25
100. Zach Pascal - age 26
101. Antonio Brown - age 33
102. Sammy Watkins - age 28
103. Josh Reynolds - age 26
104. Rashard Higgins - age 26
105. Colin Johnson - age 23
106. Scotty Miller - age 24
107. Hunter Renfrow - age 25
108. AJ Green - age 33
109. Keelan Cole - age 28

You're not drafting anyone here expecting production, but enough things could go wrong for their team that one of these guys has to step up and can put up weekly numbers.


Tier 9
110. Marquez Valdes-Scantling - age 27
111. David Moore - age 26
112. Tim Patrick - age 28
113. Miles Boykin - age 24
114. Emmanuel Sanders - age 34
115. Nelson Agholor - age 28
116. Antonio Gandy-Golden - age 23
117. Kelvin Harmon - age 23
118. Andy Isabella - age 24
119. Tre'Quan Smith - age 25
120. Anthony Miller - age 26
121. Breshad Perriman - age 27
122. Steven Sims - age 24
123. Auden Tate - age 24
124. JJ Arcega-Whiteside - age 24
125. Golden Tate - age 33

It's really bleak here.  You can try and convince yourself that there is value, but that's all your doing.

Jan 4, 2021

2021 Dynasty Start-up Rankings: RB

 Look, it was decided that on Sundays I'm not going to post.  I'm going to focus on watching football and enjoying that and not being a slave to my content (maybe I was also lazy, who knows).  3 posts in 4 days is still good, and I'm sticking to that statement regardless of whether or not you tell me I'm slipping in dedication.  It's fine (maybe).

Tier 1
1. Christian McCaffrey - age 25
2. Saquon Barkley - age 24
3. Alvin Kamara - age 26

There are always question marks with RBs, just looking at the top Tier you have two guys coming off largely MIA campaigns and another one who disappears when the backup QB plays.  That said, when these guys are on the field with the right personnel they are the premium players at their position and are still in their prime.  One could argue Kamara entering his age 26 season might not be worth this value in a dynasty start-up but RBs who are receiving backs generally age well and I'm not going fade the team who kept Darren Sproles relevant well into his 30s.


Tier 2
4. Jonathan Taylor - age 22
5. Nick Chubb - age 25
6. Ezekiel Elliott - age 26
7. Dalvin Cook - age 26
8. James Robinson - age 23
9. JK Dobbins - age 22
10. Antonio Gibson - age 23
11. D'Andre Swift - age 22
12. David Montgomery - age 24
13. Miles Sanders - age 24
14. Josh Jacobs - age 23

Everyone in this tier is either projected to continue to move forward on a linear age progression chart or maintain in the case of Elliott and Cook.  Taylor appears to have the most future talent left in the tank, but I'm not in enough love with his situation in IND to bump him to the top tier.  Chubb will be splitting carries with Hunt, Robinson has to make sure a new coaching staff doesn't give up on him or reduce his workload drastically, and everyone else needs to take one more step forward to truly become elite.


Tier 3
15. Ronald Jones - age 24
16. Cam Akers - age 22
17. Joe Mixon - age 25
18. Travis Etienne - age 22
19. Clyde Edwards-Helaire - age 22
20. Javonte Williams - age 21
21. Austin Ekeler - age 26
22. Derrick Henry - age 28
23. Aaron Jones - age 26


Everyone in this tier has the same type of question marks in Tier 2, but they run a bit deeper.  Will Jones, Akers or CEH really get the full workload? Will Mixon stay healthy and also take a step forward?  Where will Etienne and Williams land and will they get playing time?  Will Ekeler's new coaching staff keep him as the team's workhorse?  Does Derrick Henry age?  Will Aaron Jones resign with the Packers or fade into a sunset?  There is plenty of upside with every player here, but the downside looms larger than anyone in Tier 2.


Tier 4
24. AJ Dillon - age 23
25. Kareem Hunt - age 26
26. Zack Moss - age 23
27. Devin Singletary - age 24
28. Jaret Patterson - age 21
29. Kenneth Gainwell - age 22
30. Michael Carter - age 22
31. Najee Harris - age 23
32. Trey Sermon - age 22
33. Chuba Hubbard - age 22
34. Melvin Gordon - age 28

This tear is consists of three types of backs.  Players who if you remove other players from their current backfield, they could vault into the RB1 conversation, rookies who don't have a team yet, and Melvin Gordon.



Tier 5
35. Damien Harris - age 24
36. Rashaad Penny - age 25
37. Alexander Mattison - age 23
38. Tony Pollard - age 24
39. Darrell Henderson - age 24
40. Nyheim Hines - age 24
41. Justice Hill - age 23
42. Myles Gaskin - age 24
43. Lynn Bowden - age 23
44. Master Teague - age 21
45. Rhamondre Stevenson - age 22
46. Zamir White - age 22
47. James Conner - age 26
48. Ke'Shawn Vaughn - age 24

There are question marks galore in this tier.  Plenty of young-ish talent tied to great team situations along with rookies who don't know where they'll go and a free agent in James Conner who appears to be on the backside of his career but also seems to be the best option for Pittsburgh at the moment.


Tier 6
49. Kylin Hill - age 23
50. Demetric Felton - age 23
51. DeeJay Dallas - age 22
52. Kennedy Brooks - age 22
53. Javian Hawkins - age 22
54. JaMycal Hasty - age 24
55. Sony Michel - age 26
56. Chris Carson - age 27
57. David Johnson - age 29
58. Marlon Mack - age 25
59. Kenyan Drake - age 27
60. Leonard Fournette - age 26
61. JD McKissic - age 28
62. Tarik Cohen - age 26
63. La'Mical Perine - age 23
64. Joshua Kelley - age 23
65. Chase Edmonds - age 25
66. Kerryon Johnson - age 24
67. Ryquell Armstead - age 24
68. Gus Edwards - age 26
69. Raheem Mostert - age 29

There is nothing in this tier that says buy.  You have rookies who are not projected to get much playing time and will need some help to find carriers, and then veterans who are free agents who don't appear to be going anywhere to get more carries.  This is the tier where you can still hit the jackpot, but the likelihood is super low.


Tier 7
70. Anthony McFarland Jr. - age 23
71. Benny Snell Jr. - age 23
72. Darrynton Evans - age 23
73. Trayveon Williams - age 23
74. Ty Johnson - age 23
75. Mohamed Ibrahim - age 23
76. Jamaal Williams - age 26
77. Damien Williams - age 29
78. Duke Johnson - age 27
79. Ito Smith - age 25
80. Gio Bernard - age 29
81. Justin Jackson - age 25
82. Phillip Lindsay - age 27
83. Wayne Gallman - age 26
84. Le'Veon Bell - age 29
85. Royce Freeman - age 25
86. Mark Ingram - age 31
87. Bryce Love - age 24
88. Derrius Guice - age 24
89. Todd Gurley - age 27
90. Eno Benjamin - age 22
91. Salvon Ahmed - age 22
92. Jaylen Samuels - age 25
93. Darwin Thompson - age 25
94. Kalen Ballage - age 25
95. Jeff Wilson - age 26
96. Jeremy McNichols - age 25
97. Latavius Murray - age 31
98. Jordan Wilkins - age 27
99. Travis Homer - age 23
100. Mike Davis - age 28

Everything in this tier is about finding a needle in a haystack.  Last year Mike Davis was that needle as he filled in for CMC and became a weekly RB1.  Someone in here will do that again in 2021, but everyone else will be roster fodder.  You don't want these guys.

Jan 2, 2021

2021 Dynasty Start-up Rankings: QB

 We are two days into 2021 and there are two posts on this blog in 2021, this is an accomplishment that cannot go unrecognized.  The amount of effort put into this place has already surpassed all the (nonexistent) hard work we put in from 2015-2020.  I'm not really sure who to thank at this point, since it's all just two rankings posts but you get my point.  The effort level has been raised and we are going to try and sustain this level of effort for as long as possible.  Let's see how it goes.

Tier 1
1. Patrick Mahomes - age 25

If you don't have Patrick Mahomes in a tier all by himself there are only two options: 1. You are looking to get views/hits/engagement/whatever and are "embracing debate" as to why someone else is on his level when you know it is not true, or 2. You very bad at this.  It's very difficult to be able to claim something is outright wrong in fantasy football, but if you place someone else on Patrick Mahomes level there is no question about it, you are wrong.


Tier 2
2. Kyler Murray - age 24
3. Lamar Jackson - age 24
4. Deshaun Watson - age 25

Murray is the clear cut #2 and while this season has been all doom and gloom for Lamar Jackson apologists as the Ravens have been exceedingly mediocre and Jackson has barely been a top 12 QB, but when you look deeper and see the Ravens withheld JK Dobbins for far too long and will likely take a WR near the top of their draft you see Lamar's stock coming back to prominence.  The saying is that the NFL is a "what have you done for me lately?" league and Lamar is no exception (and neither is Watson who has been stuck in an awful situation in Houston) but these guys are at the bottom end of their value right now.  Dynasty is about predicting the future, and we know well and good things aren't going to get worse for these two, only better.


Tier 3
5. Dak Prescott - age 28
6. Trevor Lawrence - age 21
7. Russell Wilson - age 32
8. Joe Burrow - age 24
9. Josh Allen - age 25
10. Justin Herbert - age 23
11. Tua Tagovailoa - age 23
12. Justin Fields - age 22
13. Zach Wilson - age 21

The immediate ranking that will jump out is how Josh Allen barely cracks single digits.  Everything has gone perfect for Allen so far in his career, from finding the best coach for his skills to acquiring Stefon Diggs this year, and while that has made him a top tier QB in 2020 moving forward these things aren't going to continually get better.  He's very good, much better than most thought he would be coming out of college, but projecting him forward in a dynasty I am still bullish.  Dak could easily get bumped up a tier but with the minute chances of him leaving Dallas mixed with the minute chances he come back a step slow from injury he doesn't get the bump.  Wilson's age and late season decline along with Burrow's injury leave you with more question marks than you'd like.  Lawrence should be a start but we all know landing spot is key.  The back half of the list is young players with great potential that could get squandered but likely won't.


Tier 4
14. Aaron Rodgers - age 37
15. Jared Goff - age 26
16. Ryan Tannehill - age 33
17. Baker Mayfield - age 26
18. Jalen Hurts - age 23
19. Kirk Cousins - age 33
20. Trey Lance - age 21
21. Mac Jones - age 23


I considered putting Rodgers in a tier all by himself, as he should continue to be great, but the Packers also drafted Love for a reason and he might get a Favre-ian exit sooner rather than later.  Goff, Tannehill, Mayfield and Cousins all appear to be locked into the good but not great range while Hurts, Lance and Jones all have extremely high variance.


Tier 5
22. Matthew Stafford - age 33
23. Jordan Love - age 22
24. Matt Ryan - age 36
25. Daniel Jones - age 24
26. Sam Darnold - age 24
27. Teddy Bridgewater - age 28
28. Derek Carr - age 30
29. Taysom Hill - age 31
30. Kyle Allen - age 24
31. Carson Wentz - age 28
32. Kyle Trask - age 23

We're entering the part of the list where there are significant questions everywhere, but also a predictable path to playing time.


Tier 6
33. Ben Roethlisberger - age 39
34. Tom Brady - age 44
35. Drew Brees - age 42
36. Jameis Winston - age 27
37. Mitchell Trubisky - age 27
38. Drew Lock - age 24
39. Jimmy Garoppolo - age 29
40. Kenny Pickett - age 22
41. Jamie Newman - age 23
42. Shane Buechele - age 23
43. Desmond Ridder - age 23
44. Cam Newton - age 32
45. Phillip Rivers - age 39
46. Jacoby Brissett - age 28
47. Gardner Minshew - age 25
48. Marcus Mariota - age 27
49. Alex Smith - age 37
50. Andy Dalton  age 33

This list is full of QBs who are too old for anyone to want to invest any significant draft and the other half is full of QBs who may never start again, but also could be the next Tannehill.

Jan 1, 2021

2021 Dynasty Start-up Rankings: TE

 There sure is nothing else like a brand spanking new calendar year that gets people to re-invest into their defunct projects.  For me, that's typing up this here post, editing it, and then pressing that big orange publish button in the upper right hand corner so that my legions of anywhere between 0 to 5 followers read my thoughts on what the 2021 Dynasty Rankings at the TE position should be on January 1st, 2021.  My ability to sustain any momentum when it comes to this site is extremely fleeting, but now that the calendar has flipped I can convince myself that there is optimism in writing and I'm going to give it a go once more.  The over/under odds in Vegas for 1.5 total posts in 2021 (including this one) is dead even and I have fictional pit bosses texting me constantly for updates.  We'll see how I do.


Tier 1
1. George Kittle - age 27

We'll get to in more in the next tier, but the general consensus is that this tier should only have one player, but that player isn't George Kittle.  My reasoning for placing Kittle, alone, in the top tier is simple: he can improve in many areas in 2021.  He has yet to play a full season, he has yet to have an elite QB, he has yet to have a game-changing WR line up with him, and one or all of these things can change next season.  Sure he might still get stuck with Jimmy G, or maybe Brandon Aiyuk somehow takes a step lateral next year, but things look good moving forward.  At a young 27, Kittle has plenty of life left in his bones to give you 4 or 5 elite seasons with the opportunity to grow.


Tier 2
2. Darren Waller - age 28
3. Mark Andrews - age 25
4. TJ Hockenson - age 24
5. Travis Kelce - age 31

Waller could have found himself in our top tier, but he doesn't have the obvious upside that Kittle does.  For one, Waller already sees his lions share of targets from one of the best checkdown QBs in the league.  We saw Oakland wants to add more passing game weapons when they drafted Henry Ruggs, and while Waller certainly is elite, he's not Kittle.  Andrews and Hockenson are both members of the no-longer-sexy-names-and-just-put-up-very-solid-numbers-at-a-very-young-age club.  No one in your draft is going to think you made a great pick when you take them, and that's on them.  Consistency is key in fantasy sports, and both of these guys will be putting up consistent numbers once everyone else in the top 5 is no longer a fantasy asset.  After the initial shock wears off, I hope you realize that Kelce is 6 months younger than Gronk and has never played less than 15 games in a season.  That's real wear.  Sure, he's tied to the best offense with the best QB in the league, with one of the top field stretching WRs in the league, but are those things going to remain going forward?  I'm not doomsday predicting that any of these things collapse, but I'm also not expecting there to be no change going forward.  Kelce has had a perfect environment that past few years and I don't expect things to stay the same because they never do.


Tier 3
6. Kyle Pitts - age 21
7. Hunter Henry - age 26
8. Irv Smith Jr. - age 23
9. Mike Gesicki - age 25
10. Evan Engram - age 27
11. Jonnu Smith - age 26
12. Noah Fant - age 23
13. Zach Ertz - age 30

These are just rankings for today, so without knowing where Pitts or Henry are going its hard to know where to place them, but their talent alone means ranking them above sub-optimal landing spots for the guys below.  Smith's ranking is aggressive, but given all the other options in Minnesota he should be plenty of chances to get great matchups single coverage.  Gesicki's, Engram's, and Fant's rankings are all tied to their QBs.  Jonnu seems to have stuck in an offense that only needs him a few times a game, and it's very likely he and Irv Smith have similar numbers in 2020.  Ertz is a wildcard since he is older, has no clear QB, and might not have a new coach but has put up elite numbers very recently.


Tier 4
14. Dalton Schultz - age 25
15. Logan Thomas - age 30
16. O.J. Howard - age 26
17. Dallas Goedert - age 26
18. Drew Sample - age 25
19. Harrison Bryant - age 23
20. Austin Hooper - age 26

These guys are all high variant plays, where the amount of question marks mixed with great opportunity will lead to highly divergent results.


Tier 5
21. Cole Kmet - age 22
22. Adam Trautman - age 24
23. Dawson Knox - age 24
24. David Njoku - age 25
25. Robert Tonyan - age 27
26. Eric Ebron - age 28
27. Josh Oliver - age 24
28. Hayden Hurst - age 28
29. Tyler Higbee - age 29
30. Pat Freiermuth - age 22
31. Will Dissly - age 25
32. Gerald Everett - age 27
33. Mo-Allie Cox - age 28
34. Chris Herndon - age 25
35. Ian Thomas - age 26
36. Blake Jarwin - age 27
37. Kyle Rudolph - age 32

Everyone in this has some sort of setback tied to their current status that is going to hold them from being every day players at the moment.


Tier 6
38. Jace Sternberger - age 25
39. Brevin Jordan - age 21
40. Brycen Hopkins - age 24
41. Richard Rodgers - age 29
42. Foster Moreau - age 24
43. Dalton Keene - age 22
44. Jordan Akins - age 29
45. Jake Ferguson - age 21
46. Charlie Kolar - age 22
47. Kahale Warring - age 24
48. Devin Asiasi - age 24
49. Adam Shaheen - age 26
50. Trey Burton - age 29

These are some shot in the dark young guns or very unsexy, unlikely to go off old guns.