Sep 18, 2013

Week 3 Shuffle: Running Back

Listed are the Top 60 RBs for the upcoming week.  Rankings are based on the projected mean performance without any specific team context on who you should start.  Sometimes you need to start the lower of two players due to upside or a high floor, so things are fluid.  As always, players can move up or down as we approach kickoff.  So please indulge yourself & dissect our list from top to bottom.  Let's Go!

Tier 1:
1. Jamaal Charles @PHI
2. Marshawn Lynch vs JAC
3. Alfred Morris vs DET
4. Doug Martin @NE
5. LeSean McCoy vs KC
6. Adrian Peterson vs CLE
7. Darren McFadden @DEN
8. Matt Forte @PIT
9. Knowshon Moreno vs OAK
10. Joique Bell @WAS
11. Darren Sproles vs ARI
12. Bernard Pierce vs HOU

 - Joique Bell and Bernard Pierce are both making their first appearance in must-start RB territory.  Their presence alone as stand-ins for their weekly starters should tell you this is a brutal week for running backs.  Adrian Peterson finds himself "sliding" down the rankings to number #6 against a very underrated Cleveland front seven.  Excluding his first carry of the year that went for 77 yards against Detroit AD has looked far more average then the fantasy world wants to admit.  Maybe it's just a blip on the radar but another poor showing this week might cause me to consider selling high.  Moreno finds himself in the top 10 after solidifying his starting job last week.  That cushy run defense against Oakland should net owners at least 60 yards and a score.  McFadden & Sproles have given their owners a strong ROI to start the year and barring injury should keep the nice returns going this week.

Tier 2:
13. Arian Foster @BAL
14. Chris Johnson vs SD
15. Lamar Miller vs ATL
16. C.J. Spiller @NYJ
17. DeAngelo Williams vs NYG
18. DeMarco Murray vs STL
19. Stevan Ridley vs TB
20. Frank Gore vs IND
21. Ryan Mathews @TEN
22. James Starks @CIN
23. Rashad Mendenhall @NO
24. David Wilson @CAR

- The second tier running backs are filled with countless questions this week.  Will Stevan Ridley and David Wilson finally rebound from their awful starts to the year?  Which DeMarco Murray will we see?  Did I really draft C.J. Spiller in the first round?  Is Ben Tate going to slowly take the starting job from Arian?  Really, I'm starting James Starks?  Mendenhall, Miller & DeAngelo all have intriguing matchups, but none of them have a guarantee to get the lions share of the carries this week.  This is essentially a list of RBs owners will be starting this week wishing they had a better option.

Tier 3:
25. Giovani Bernard vs GB
26. Bilal Powell vs BUF
27. Reggie Bush @WAS
28. Daryl Richardson @DAL
29. BenJarvus Green-Ellis vs GB
30. Trent Richardson @SF
31. Fred Jackson @NYJ
32. Maurice Jones-Drew @SEA
33. Chris Ivory vs BUF
34. Pierre Thomas vs ARI
35. Ben Tate @BAL
36. Willis McGahee @MIN

- Typical fantasy rules say "If you don't start a RB at Flex you are an idiot".  This year & especially this week, there are far too many reasons to go against this old school way of thinking.  No one here is a safe bet to do anything of note.  The Cincinnati backs still haven't figured out who the leading man is.  Bush & MJD are both game time decisions and could easily put up a DNP-CD.  Trent Richardson is entering a new playbook on a short week against a top tier defense.  Powell & Ivory play for the Jets.  Willis McGahee has been in street clothes for the first two weeks begging a team to take a chance on him, but you shouldn't.  Lots of ugly questions with extremely low floors available here, it's really hard to strongly endorse anyone.

Tier 4:
37. Jacquizz Rodgers @MIA
38. Andre Ellington @NO
39. Robert Turbin vs JAC
40. Jason Snelling @MIA
41. Daniel Thomas vs ATL
42. Montee Ball vs OAK
43. Ahmad Bradshaw @SF
44. Felix Jones vs CHI
45. Chris Ogbonnaya @MIN
46. Mark Ingram vs ARI
47. Bobby Rainey @MIN
48. Brandon Jacobs @CAR

- Most experts believe Jacquizz will be getting the majority of touches against Miami this week, but I have a strong feeling Jason Snelling is going to split evenly with Rodgers.  Ellington has the best upside if Mendenhall is listed as OUT, but everything here is pretty gross.  Ball & Turbin could see some late game carries in garbage time.  Felix Jones is the "starter" in Pittsburgh, but that situation might be the ugliest in the league.  Ogbonnaya & Rainey project to split evenly with McGahee, so they'll touch the ball.  Ingram is questionable and it seems like hasn't had over 50 yards in a single game for his career.  Hopefully you have better options then starting any of these guys in Week 3.

Tier 5:
49. Jordan Todman @SEA
50. Kendall Hunter vs IND
51. Justin Forsett @SEA
52. Isaac Redman vs CHI
53. Brandon Boldin vs TB
54. Da'Rel Scott @CAR
55. Danny Woodhead @TEN
56. Bryce Brown vs KC
57. Mike Tolbert vs NYG
58. LeGarrette Blount vs TB
59. Alfonso Smith @NO
60. Isaiah Pead @DAL

- No one listed here should get a start, but if you happened to draft Ray Rice, Steven Jackson & Eddie Lacy this section is made just for you.  We got a Thursday night preview of what this list looks like with Bryce Brown getting 3 touches for 7 yards.  Everyone here should get their 2+ touches, but if you are seriously considering starting one of these backs, you are in trouble.  That is, you should be in "time to tank for next year" mode.  You are the Cleveland Browns.

Check out all our Week 2 Rankings: QB RB WR TE LB DL DB K D/ST


As always, read & discuss.  You can reach me on Twitter @ClevRocks_James or comment your (dis)agreements below.

Week 3 Shuffle: Quarterback

Listed are the Top 25 QBs for the upcoming week.  Rankings are based on the projected mean performance without any specific team context on who you should start.  Sometimes you need to start the lower of two players due to upside or a high floor, so things are fluid.  As always, players can move up or down as we approach kickoff.  So please indulge yourself & dissect our list from top to bottom.  Let's Go!

Tier 1:
1. Aaron Rodgers @CIN
2. Peyton Manning vs OAK
3. Drew Brees vs ARI
4. Matt Stafford @WAS
5. Robert Griffin III vs DET
6. Michael Vick vs KC
7. Cam Newton vs NYG
8. Matt Ryan @MIA
9. Tom Brady vs TB
10. Colin Kaepernick vs IND
11. Russell Wilson vs JAC
12. Andy Dalton vs GB

 - There aren't too many surprises in the top 12 this week.  The consensus top three signal callers lead the way this week with no elite matchups getting exposed from the next tier.  Andy Dalton sneaks his way into the top 12 in the last slot with a predictably pass happy game at home against Green Bay.  Kaepernick & Wilson return to the top 12 after (rightfully) being left out of the top 15 last week.  We really hope that you did the right thing and benched them last week, otherwise you probably got the bog ole "L" in the loss column.

Tier 2:
13. Terrelle Pryor @DEN
14. Alex Smith @PHI
15. Joe Flacco vs HOU
16. Tony Romo vs STL
17. Andrew Luck @SF
18. Eli Manning @CAR
19. Sam Bradford @DAL
20. Carson Palmer @NO
21. Matt Schaub @BAL
22. Jay Cutler @PIT
23. Philip Rivers @TEN
24. Ryan Tannehill vs ATL
25. E.J. Manuel @NYJ

- The second tier has a few high end QBs with spotty matchups.  Andrew Luck and Tony Romo find themselves outside the top 15, although neither look to be death sentences if they're started.  Philip Rivers begs us to trust him higher then a back-end QB2 but his first road game against the sneaky good Titans defense is not something you should trust.  Eli Manning is the biggest wildcard of this bunch, but given his first two performances on the year he may have contracted whatever horrible disease Rivers has had the past few years.  None of these guys should be spot added in a 12 man league unless you have liberal roster usage and deep benches.  There isn't much of a reason to add Pryor, Smith or Flacco over Romo & Luck unless you're not cutting a higher upside asset a.k.a. a RB or WR.

Check out all our Week 2 Rankings: QB RB WR TE LB DL DB K D/ST


As always, read & discuss.  You can reach me on Twitter @ClevRocks_James or comment your (dis)agreements below.

Sep 17, 2013

Waiver Wire Winners: Week 3

Each week Cleveland's Rocks will review top Free Agents owned in under 50% of ESPN leagues.  Worthy eligible players will get lumped into three teams: "Full Season Endorsement" "Future & Upside" and "Plug & Play"

All teams consist of a QB, two RB and WRs with a TE, K, DEF and FLEX.  All "Plug & Play"s need to be rostered in less then 25% of leagues.  For each FLEX, players can only be owned in 15% of ESPN leagues.

Read.  React.  Improve.  Let's do this gamers.


Full Season Endorsement

QB Alex Smith (17.5%) - Unfortunately, there are way too many repeats on our list for full season endorsement.  We start with Smith who is attached to Andy Reid's famous pass happy offense, an elite wide receiver in Dwayne Bowe & a dynamic pass catching running back name Jamaal Charles.  The man who led the league in passer rating last year has continued being an excellent game manager with a 4-0 TD-INT ratio for the year.  Once he leaves Reid's old stomping grounds in Philadelphia with 300+ yards at 3+ TDs owners are going to hop all over the Smith bandwagon.  Beat everyone to the punch and stash him on the back of your roster now.  This former #1 overall pick ranks 15th in our full season rankings & will be an elite bye week plug or maybe even more.  Add him gamers.

RB Bilal Powell (38.0%) - Our second repeat performer on the list, Bilal Powell did exactly what owners want out of their flex back.  15 touches for 70 yards and a score is a perfect performance for your flex back.  Mix in the fact Chris Ivory is already dinged up & this job will be Powell's to loose at the eventual point when Ivory misses some weeks due to injury.  It makes no sense Chris is owned in 100% of leagues while Bilal can't crack the 50% mark.  Add him and you'll have Knowshon Moreno 2.0 people.  Thank me later.

RB Pierre Thomas (23.5%) - Thomas is the same back he was last week.  Another repeater on the list, he had only 9 touches for 48 yards but this is his floor.  Expect 70 or so a yards a week and maybe a score.  That's a better output then Ronnie Hillman, Roy Helu, Shonn Greene, Vick Ballard, Bryce Bown, Isaiah Pead & Isaac Redman are all going to put out.  These guys are all owned somehow in 50%+ of leagues, which should not happen.  PT Bruiser is better then all of them.

WR Andre Roberts (36.0%) - Andre put up a boring 3-36-0 line against the Lion last week, but that's the risk that comes with a flex WR.  There is so much upside here it's amazing he isn't own in more leagues. I don't know what Ryan Broyles or Denarius Moore posses that Andre doesn't, but take advantage of these idiot owners and beat them to the better WR. Roberts needs to be owner in at least two thirds of leagues & he's barely there.

WR Eddie Royal (18.4%) - This isn't a flashback to our 2009 rankings, Eddie Royal is really here.  It's not that anyone believes he is going to keep up his insane 40 touchdown pace, it's more that he looks to be locked in with Philip Rivers & that should produce high floors.  Even if you don't believe in Royal, someone in your league will so & sell him for whatever profit you can find.  He is a WR3 at the moment and could maybe go up to WR2 status, but he should be an add & sell guy.  Or the guy you replace Malcom Floyd with, since he looks to be out for a long time.

TE Jermaine Gresham (11.5%) - There is nothing special about Gresham.  He is going to go out snag 5 balls for 50 yards and maybe sprinkle in a score.  Essentially the TE version of Pierre Thomas, you can do a whole lot worse by starting Zach Sudfled or some other TE who has the "young, sexy upside" label.  I'd rather own the sure points and Gresham.  With bye weeks coming up, he's going to be coveted so put him on your roster & reap the rewards folks.

FLEX WR Marlon Brown (4.9%) - Brown is the first WR in Ravens history to score in his first two games.  Despite going undrafted in April, there is plenty of upside now making him a reasonable fantasy play.  Jacoby Jones is out at least another 3 weeks and there are zero other pass catches on this offense not named Torrey Smith.  Brown should get his looks and produce, which is exactly what you want out of a WR4 on your bench.  There are so many worst things you can do then roster Brown.

K Garrett Hartley (22.0%) - Finally, after a multiple years of being the sleeper kicker tied to a high power offense that disappointed, Hartley looks to have gotten what he needs.  The Saints still look elite, but not as good as the past few years which means more field goal tries.  Hartley is a top 10 kicker and shouldn't encounter any bad matchups the rest of the way.  He's ranked inside the top 6 the rest of the way & should be universally owned.  If you need to cut ties with Phil Dawson, this is the man to go add.

DEF Tennessee Titans (2.4%) - Again, we don't endorse any full season ownership for non-elite defenses, but the Titans have shown they are sneaky good through the first two weeks.  Excluding a brutal final 2 minutes in Houston, those 16 points given up looked real good.  Mix in 4 turnovers and 1 defensive TD already and there is a case to made for ownership.  Somehow, they are in the bottom 5 in defensive ownership.  That should increase soon & considering they still play Jacksonville twice there is a nice looking schedule to go with.  If you want to do the long-term buy thing, Tennessee is who we are selling.


Future & Upside

QB Terrelle Pryor (22.4%) - Despite throwing for a weak 125 yards last week the modern equivalent to Tyler Thigpen is running wild in Oakland.  Ten points don't cut it for a weekly play, but there is no one with the upside Pryor has.  If he can figure out any part of the passing game, he is going to be a poor man's Michael Vick or in fantasy terms equal with Russell Wilson.  Teams that can stash a QB on their roster should look at Pryor because all the signs for fantasy success are there.

RB Andre Brown (27.2%) - We said it last week and we'll say it again, this is a man you want to own. Yes he's out until Week 7 but the Giants RB situation is a disaster & he is a savior in waiting.  Own Andre over Christine Michael and love yourself when the back half of the season rolls around.  Please, add him.

RB James Starks (6.2%) - With the overwhelming possibility that Eddie Lacy will take this week off & the bye week to get his head straight (literally) Starks is getting his 80th chance to prove his worth in Green Bay.  Being the first 100 yard rusher for the team since Ryan Grant last week was a good audition and if given another shot this week he shouldn't disappoint.  Lacy may come back & take the majority of carries, but Starks needs to be owned based on the potential with this offense.  He is probably a sell high candidate, but he still needs to be on rosters.  Now.

WR Kenbrell Thompkins (39.4%) - Where has the hype gone with KT?  Heading into the year there were projections all over the board for 1000 yard seasons.  Amendola is out, Sudfeld is out, Gronk still might be out, but these projections are gone?  It makes no sense that the Patriots offense is in turmoil so Thompkins is getting the axe?  I still like Kenbrell to be the highest scoring WR in New England at year's end & would rather own him over everyone but Amendola & Gronkowski.  Get him back on your rosters and wait for the big game.  His is still seeing his targets & once he gets in sync with Brady the results will be there.  Be patient gamers the kid still has 6 grabs for 99 yards in two games, Lance Moore owners aren't cutting him and he has less then half both those totals.

WR Justin Blackmon (15.6%) - We went through this last week. Add him please.  There is no reason this man shouldn't be universally owned, yet somehow his ownership gets cut in half last week?  Flat out unacceptable Blackmon isn't owned in more leagues, his value went UP last week when Chad Henne got the start.  This make no sense.  Add him.  Now.  For your sake, not mine.

TE Heath Miller (6.9%) - A top 5 TE last year, Miller has slipped through the cracks this year since he had a leg explosion (ACL & MCL) at the end of last year.  Miller is one of those guys who goes out, gets you your fantasy points, then comes home and goes to bed.  There is nothing flashy at all about what he does.  If you need to stash a TE since Julius Thomas is still Julius Thomas, Miller should be on your roster, or at least more then 6.9% of rosters.

FLEX RB Robert Turbin (4.7%) - Another repeat, Turbin is the handcuff everyone needs to Marshawn Lynch.  Criminally underowned, this man might rack up 10 points next week vs the horrible Jaguars.  We said it last week & it bears repeating, high end handcuffs should be owned.  Remember what happened to Joique Bell & Ben Tate?  Turbin is in their league.

K Alex Henery (6.1%) - Kicker tied to Chip Kelly's offense.  Points will be scored weekly, which is what you want with your kicker.  Add this guy.

DEF Cleveland Browns (5.4%) - The Browns have given up 50 carriers for 110 yards & 2 TDs on the ground this year.  They've also been losing in 100% of the minutes they've played this year.  Sounds like if this team could ever get a lead, they'd have a great defense to help hold that lead.  They should be owned in more leagues & you could do a whole lot worse then these guys.


Plug & Play

QB Carson Palmer (23.2%) @NO
RB Daniel Thomas (11.3%) vs ATL
RB Felix Jones (1.5%) vs CHI
WR Santana Moss (23.6%) vs DET
WR Nate Burleson (5.0%) @WAS
TE Charles Clay (0.8%) vs ATL FLEX WR Stephen Hill (1.9%) vs BUF
K Stephen Hauschka (17.7%) vs JAC
DEF Minnesota Vikings (8.1%) vs CLE



Honorable Mentions: 

Andy Dalton (34.3%) E.J. Manuel (12.2%) Mike Tolbert (22.4%) Brandon Jacobs (6.1%) Jordan Todman (1.4%) Brandon Boldin (0.7%) Jason Snelling (0.4%) Andre Ellington (0.3%) Aaron Dobson (6.7%) Robert Woods (4.7%) Harry Douglas (3.7%) Doug Baldwin (3.5%) Rod Streater (3.5%) Donnie Avery (1.7%) Tyler Eifert (8.1%) Coby Fleener (7.9%) Caleb Sturgis (4.7%) Atlanta Falcons (12.5%)

Sep 16, 2013

Post Game Reaction: Ravens 14 Browns 6

It's been a few hours since I've left BDubs, so I've had some time for the alcohol to die down and my temper to do the same. But if you think I'm going to come away from this game with any hint of optimism you're wrong. Here are my unfiltered thoughts about today. Keep in mind I don't have time to sit here and break down film like some unemployed lunatic.

1) Greg Little Can Get Off My Team--No, Seriously

Different number, same result
I WANT to like Greg Little. I've tried so hard. I supported him time and time again his rookie year. He pissed me off last year until he started to put it together the second half of the season. That's what makes it even worse this year. He looked like he was finally "getting it." You can say what you want about him being "all we have" until Gordon comes back. Or that he's the "best of the worst." I refuse to believe it. In the most fundamental sense of the game, recievers' jobs are to catch the football. Say what you want about route running, straight-line speed, blocking on the outside, etc.,
if you can't catch the football it all goes to shit. I can't sit here and watch Greg Little drop passes week after week (often times directly leading to interceptions (last week) or almost leading to interceptions (this week)) and accept the fact that he's "the best we have." A receiver that can't catch the football is a waste of a roster spot. Period.

2) The Secondary Needs Help--But We Knew That

I'll admit I was/have been pleasantly surprised by the secondary up to this point, today included. But, we've seen how stout the run defense is, the pass defense is the weak point of this defense. This isn't to say that the defense is in dire straights at all, but I think everyone will admit that a bonafide #2 CB is the next (dare I say final?) piece to the defensive puzzle.

I guess not blocking anyone is better
than being put on your ass.
3) The Offensive Line Played Better, But Cousins Still Blows

Last week Weeden didn't have time to do anything, let alone make clean throws. This week, while the
offensive line was still shaky, there was time to make plays. And while Weeden has to make them, I still put a lot of the blame on the receivers for not coming up with the ball. Regardless, this point is about the offensive line. Like I said, they played markedly better versus the Ravens. Hey, I only saw Oneil Cousins get steamrolled about half a dozen times this week! Also, what's the deal with Mitch Schwartz. The Bear Jew looks like he's hitting a big sophomore slump this year after what was an exceptional rookie campaign.

4) Maybe Trent Richardson Isn't As Good As We All Like To Think He Is

Through two games Norv Turner, appropriately described as one of the best play callers of all time, has run Trent 31 times. That's an average for 15.5 rushes a game, for all you math geniuses out there. And let's not get delusional like Turner doesn't know how to utilize good running back talent.

His running back resume:


  • Put Emmitt Smith (Dallas) and Ladanian Tomlinson (San Diego) in the Hall of Fame 
  • Coached Ricky Williams (Miami) to over 1,800 yards in 2002 and 1,300 yards in 2003
  • Got Lamont freaking Jordan (Oakland) to crack 1,000 yards in 2005 
  • Was the offensive coordinator when Frank Gore (San Francisco) broke out for 1,600 yards in 2006
I'll stop there, but you get the point. If anyone deserves the benefit of the doubt for the use of Trent Richardson, it's Norv Turner. And say what you want about teams stacking the box, yada yada yada. Teams stack the box against Adrian Peterson, too, and AD was the guy whom everyone compared Trent to coming out of Alabama. If you had to guess Trent's stats were right now, through two games and 31 carries, what would you say. If you answered something along the lines of 3.4 YPC and a long of TEN YARDS, you'd be right. Think about that. Ten Yards. I'll keep supporting Trent and hoping that I'm wrong, but it's hard to argue with mediocre numbers being put up at this point.

That's my rant about yesterday's game. It's Monday now, so I'll do my best and put it behind me. I'm sure by Saturday afternoon I'll be fully on board with a Browns win against Minnesota (since their run defense is top 5 and Christian Ponder isn't going to beat them). And they'll let me down again, no doubt.

(Hey, at least the Tribe is only .5 game back of the wildcard!!! Let's be real, Cleveland. It's football season.)

Sep 13, 2013

Ballard down; Bradshaw up?

Indianapolis fans woke up to somber news this morning when Colts officials announced RB Vick Ballard was placed on season ending IR.  On Thursday, the former 5th round pick crumpled to the ground in a non-contract drill.  The fears of the worst were accurate, as it was confirmed today that Ballard tore his right ACL.  Not only does Ballard have a year's worth of rehab ahead, but he also will probably never be this close to a starting tailback position on an NFL roster again.  These are the types of injuries that are career killers and it sucks that Ballard's opportunity was taken away from him.


Now, onto the fantasy implications.  Typical protocol suggest that the next RB in line, Ahmad Bradshaw, will step in and take the majority of carries.  This isn't going to happen on Sunday.  Donald Brown will slide up the depth chart into Ballard's role with Kerwyn Williams taking Brown's.  Bradshaw is still working is way back into peak NFL running back shape & an expected to playoff bound team like the Colts aren't going to rush him back.  They will try and dissipate Ballard's touches equally, so expect only a 5 touch max increase for Bradshaw for Week 2.  If you are looking for a plug this week (I hope you aren't, it 's only Week 2) then grab Brown and start him, but he still isn't cracking our top 50 RBs.

The long term outlook is much more appealing for Bradshaw owners.  The Colts brought him in late in the offseason with the clear intention to get him the ball.  Neither Indianapolis or Bradshaw himself are expecting to see only 8 touches a game.  The uptick is coming & savvy owners out there are going to realize it.  Making the move today is going to result in paying for the Ballard injury.  Once Ahmad logs his 13 slated touches this week & we all see Donald Brown split carries equally, Bradshaw's value will drop to a low point.  That's when it is time to buy gamers.  Play the waiting game on this one, but be ready to cash in.


We all know Tom Coughlin would give this man 20 carriers this week, that's a guarantee.

As always, read & discuss.  You can reach me on Twitter @ClevRocks_James or comment your (dis)agreements below.  Thanks for reading.