Sep 24, 2013

Week 4 Shuffle: QB

Listed are the Top 25 QBs for the upcoming week.  Rankings are based on the projected mean performance without any specific team context on who you should start.  Sometimes you need to start the lower of two players due to upside or a high floor, so things are fluid.  As always, players can move up or down as we approach kickoff.  So please indulge yourself & dissect our list from top to bottom.  Let's Go!


Elite Top 12:

1. Peyton Manning vs PHI
     Projection: 428 passing yards 5 TDs 0 INTs: 3 carries -3 yards: 36.8 points
2. Michael Vick @DEN
     Projection: 313 passing yards 3 TDs 1 INT: 7 carries for 67 yards 1 TD: 1 fumble: 33.2 points
3. Andrew Luck @JAC
     Projection: 378 passing yards 4 TDs 1 INT: 6 carries for 31 yards: 32.2 points
4. Robert Griffin III @OAK
     Projection: 341 passing yards 3 TDs 2 INTs: 4 carries for 41 yard 1 TD: 31.8 points
5. Matt Ryan vs NE
     Projection: 299 passing yards 4 TDs 0 INT: 1 carry for 6 yards: 28.5 points
6. Drew Brees vs MIA
     Projection: 347 passing yards 3 TDs 1 INT: 1 carry for -1 yards: 25.8 points
7. Tony Romo @SD
     Projection: 363 passing yards 3 TDs 2 INTs: 2 carries for 12 yards: 23.7 points
8. Matthew Stafford vs CHI
     Projection: 355 passing yards 3 TDs 2 INTs: 1 carry for 2 yards: 23.3 points
9. Tom Brady @ATL
     Projection: 413 passing yards 2 TDs 1 INT: 0 carries for 0 yards: 22.5 points
10. Russell Wilson @HOU
      Projection: 245 passing yards 2 TDs 0 INTs: 5 carries for 45 yards: 22.3 points
11. Colin Kaepernick @STL
     Projection: 181 passing yards 1 TD 1 INT: 11 carries for 82 yards 1 TD: 1 fumble: 21.4 points
12. Alex Smith vs NYG
     Projection: 241 passing yards 2 TDs 0 INTs: 1 carry for 3 yards: 17.9 points


Spot Starters 13-25:

13. Philip Rivers vs DAL
      Projection: 322 passing yards 2 TDs 1 INT: 0 carries for 0 yards: 1 fumble: 16.9 points
14. Ryan Tannehill @NO
     Projection: 281 passing yards 2 TDs 2 INTs: 4 carries 16 yards: 16.8 points
15. Jay Cutler @DET
     Projection: 266 passing yards 2 TDs 1 INT: 1 carry -1 yards: 16.5 points
16. Andy Dalton @CLE
     Projection: 246 passing yards 2 TDs 1 INT: 0 carries for 0 yards: 15.9 points
17. Ben Roethlisberger @MIN
     Projection: 354 passing yards: 1 TD 2 INTs: 3 carries for 17 yards: 15.7 points
18. Matt Flynn @WAS
     Projection: 339 passing yards 2 TDs 3 INTs: 0 carries for 0 yards: 15.6 points
19. E.J. Manuel vs BAL
     Projection: 223 passing yards 1 TDs 2 INTs: 6 carries for 36 yards: 12.5 points
20. Joe Flacco @BUF
      Projection: 294 passing yards: 0 TDs 0 INTs: 0 carries for 0 yards: 11.8 points
21. Eli Manning @KC 
      Projection: 336 passing yards 1 TD 3 INTs: 0 carries for 0 yards: 11.5 points
22. Carson Palmer @TB
      Projection: 271 passing yards 2 TD 3 INTs: 0 carries for 0 yards: 1 fumble: 10.9 points
23. Sam Bradford vs SF
     Projection: 238 passing yards 1 TD 2 INTs: 0 carries for 0 yards: 9.5 points
24. Jake Locker vs NYJ
     Projection: 217 passing yards 0 TDs 0 INTs: 4 carries for 8 yards: 9.3 points
25. Brian Hoyer vs CIN
     Projection: 306 passing yards 1 TD 3 INTs: 0 carries for 0 yards: 1 fumble: 9.2 points


Check out all our Week 4 Rankings


As always, read & discuss.  You can reach me on Twitter @ClevRocks_James or comment your (dis)agreements below. 

Sep 19, 2013

How We Trade Raped The Colts

With emotions running high, most people just assumed the Trent trade was a classic Cleveland blunder. Social media was set ablaze and once again Cleveland was in the national spot light looking like a fool with it's pants on the ground.

I saw hundreds of posts, replies, and rants via all sorts of social media last night and this morning. People not thinking, just assuming that Cleveland was at the "Taco" end of a trade (thats a The League reference for those who don't watch one of the best shows on TV).

If only all of what I saw on social media was directed at me, I could have shown these people how to use your head and this thing called logic. In my opinion, the Browns got tremendous value for Richardson. The following will be a rhetorical Q & A. Kind of like when I plan an entire argument out in my head against my girlfriend, which usually never works out.

Again, these are all things I saw over the past 18 hours.

Also, some may just be statements instead of questions, still goes with the flow in my head.

Q: What the fuck did we just do!? We just traded our best player and franchise back!

A: Whoa compadre, the Browns just did what they thought best for the future of the team. And if you think he was our best player than I can't help you. And wtf is a franchise back? Is Trent gonna read the D, make checks, throw the ball, and run the ball? Cause so far he's done none of those.

Q: Trent's a beast! The Browns just gave up. I'm done with this team!

A: Ok, I know thats just an egregious statement rather than a question but we'll let it slide. Is Trent a beast though? Or do people just think he's a beast because he did great at Alabama and was picked at 3? What has Trent done exactly to be considered a beast? Run some dude over last year that's now a penalty? Fullbacks do that all the time and still have a better YPC than Trent. Hillis did that all the time. Speaking of Hillis, check out these stats.

Player A: 270 rushes, 1177 yards, 61 catches, 477 yards
Player B: 298 rushes, 1095 yards, 58. catches, 418 yards
Player C: 302 rushes, 1401 yards, 61 catches, 444 yards

Player A: Peyton Hillis during his 2010 season with the Browns as a glorified fullback.
Player B: Trent's entire career with the Browns, as a 3rd overall pick deemed the next AP.
Player C: Jerome f'ing Harrison's career Browns stats as a 3rd down back.

Oh, and for those who said you're done with the team. I hope you are. But I know you'll be back in April. See you then.

Q: Well Trent's o-line has been terrible for him.

A: I'll admit it hasn't been great this year. But last year everyone said it was the only bright part of the team. And last year Trent's numbers were pedestrian. Good, not great. And he was out preformed by 3 other rookies. And how were our o-line's when Hillis and Harrison were rushing?

Q: We have no passing game, so teams load the box to stop him.

A: You're right. Thankfully Christian Ponder and that high octane passing attack in Minnesota keeps the defense off Peterson.

Q: Why do we keep comparing Trent to Peterson?

A: Um, how bout cause we traded up to 3 to get him, and no other running back was taken that high in the last 10 years besides Peterson. We traded up with the intention that he was the next Peterson. AP averaged 5.6 YPC his rookie year. He also made plays that Trent just hasn't shown us he can make. Yes Trent is good, he can truck stick a DB, and constantly gets an extra yard than he should, but he hasn't made AP plays. And his stats are still very, very average.

Q: Why didn't we give him more time?

A: Ahhh didn't Colt McCoy coin that question? Running backs don't get more time. A lot of people thought Trent had too many touches in college. Are we just supposed to feed him 350 plus touches a year until he shows us something? Running backs need to produce, or at least show you something as rookies, or they are sent packing. He's a 22 year old with a 25 year old's amount of touches. Running back's life expectancy in the NFL is crazy small. He needed to produce, and he didn't. Waiting makes no sense.

Q: We drafted him at three last year and we're gonna get a pick in the 20's!?

A: First off, the people who drafted him at 3 are no longer with the Browns. This FO had nothing to do with the past drafts, and have been publicly criticizing them ever since they came along. Secondly, take a basic economics class. Just cause he was drafted at 3, doesn't mean crap to his current value. To get a 1st round pick for a guy who has been out preformed by Hillis (a guy released then traded around), and Jerome Harrison (a guy traded for Mike Bell), is pretty good. As many national analysts said, there isn't one NFL RB other than AP they would've traded a 1st for.

Q: Why are we giving up on the season so early?/ Tanking already?

A: First off, I wouldn't say we're giving up on the season. I mean we're already 0-2. But, we could have easily been 2-0 or at least 1-1 with even an average offense. What exactly did Trent do to help us win those games? Nothing. So in my opinion, the Browns will be no better or no worse than they already have been. As for tanking, which I think we all realize they're doing, I support it 100%. How can the Colts do it and get praised? What about the Cavs who did it for the last 3 years? (btw, Dan Gilbert, I love you man, but don't ever lecture us on Twitter about tanking) The Browns are clearly lining up to get a franchise QB, plus more picks to help our offense. For a team that has fluctuated between 4 and 7 wins for the past decade, you'd think fans wouldn't mind tanking for a QB.

If we don't trade up for a QB that leaves us with most likely a top 5 pick with a deep QB class. Plus a pick in the 20's (WR/RB), a pick in the early 2nd round (RB/WR), and two more in the 3rd and 4th. With the defense the Browns currently have, we are just one good draft and a QB away from competing. Pitt and Baltimore are only getting older and they are clearly not that good. Cincy is the best in the AFC North, but I think we're only a decent offense away from competing with them.

The facts are there. You just have to get passed the preconceived notion that Trent is already/guaranteed to be great. Facts are he's been average at best so far.

There you have it.

Boom. Trade raped.

Trent & Why

Eventually the plan is going to work.  Carmen Policy told us to be patient and let the expansion years play out.  Phil Savage told us time was needed to right the wrongs of those who came before him.  George Kokinis told us this would be the regime that finally put pieces together to win football games.  Mike Holgren reminded us he built a winners in Green Bay and Seattle and knew the winning formula.  Joe Banner has told us that the team is placing the best product it can on the field.  Joe Banner has told us that the team is building for long term success.  None of these statements have come true.  None of these statements appear to be coming true soon.  None of these statements makes anyone who gives a damn about Cleveland Browns football optimistic about any "regime" or "process" or "product" that the team is attempting.  Everything about these statements tell us false hope is being sold.  Everything about these statements tell us to not buy it.  Everything tells us the past is destined to repeat itself.  Everything tells us failure will always be.

Eventually a regime of blowhards is going to put together a winning Browns team.  Eventually the process is going to play out and positive results will follow.  Eventually the product will be worth watching, even if it's all sheer luck.  The law of averages says so.  It tells us to keep believing.  It tells us that things will eventually change for the better.  It tells us that there is no connection from previous leaders to the next.  It tells us everyone who comes to Cleveland is not destined to be a colossal failure.  It tells us to believe.  It tells us over and over again: Believe.

It is not easy to believe.  There have been 19 starting quarterbacks.  There have been 16 first round picks.  There have been 4 seasons over five wins.  There have been 3 thousand yard backs.  Only Jamal Lewis has repeated, doing so 1 time.  There have been 4 thousand yard receivers.  None have ever repeated.  There have been 3 passers throw over three thousand yards in a season.  None have ever repeated.  There have been two winning seasons.  There has been one double digit win season.  There has been one playoff game.  There have been zero play off wins.  There have been boycotts.  There have been petitions.  There have been Twitter blow ups.  There have been those who swore the team off only to come right back.  There have been ownership changes.  But most of all, above everything else, there has been misery.

Cleveland hasn't seen an offensive product worth watching since 2007.  That was the year that Browns fans thought for a sliver of a second that we had an enviable quarterback situation.  Derek Anderson was hot off a 29 TD season.  Brady Quinn was the heir in waiting and there was actually a quarterback controversy to get excited about.  Braylon Edwards hadn't yet embarrassed himself by thinking Cleveland had a vendetta for players who went to the University of Michigan and not instead players who lead the league in drops.  Jamal Lewis amassed over 1,500 total yards and looked to still have good years left in the tank.  Kellen Winslow looked like the elite athlete he was prior to doing his motorcycle stunts.  Joe Thomas looked like he was the NFL's best tackle.  The entire defense looked capable of stopping the opponent from scoring touchdowns on every drive.

All these pieces were in place in 2008, the year of hope was finally here.  We went 4-12.


This is why we can't handle seeing Trent Richardson get traded in Week 2.  There was no offseason full of buildup that management and player were no match made in heaven.  There was no soundbite of Richardson frustrated with team's "direction".  There was no clip of Richardson bashing his second head coach, offensive coordinator, or running backs coach in two years.  There was no evidence that things were status quo.  There was no evidence that Trent wasn't going to pile together 1,000 yards while the team marched its way to 6 wins, maybe 7 if we get lucky.  This is what we had to look forward to.  This was our season.

That's why this sucks.  The best offensive player the New Browns have ever seen was traded because he "wasn't the right fit".  The win total is what truly isn't "the right fit".  It doesn't matter that Richardson had more attempts then Jerome Harrison when he was traded.  It doesn't matter Richardson has less
total yards then Jerome Harrison when he was traded.  It doesn't matter that Richardson had less 100+ yard games then Jerome Harrison.  It doesn't matter that Richardson has a less catches then Jerome Harrison.  It doesn't matter that Richardson had a lower Yard Per Carry and Yard Per Catch then Jerome Harrison.  It doesn't matter that the first round pick we got in return is of far greater value then Mike Bell, the player we got in return for Jerome Harrison.  It doesn't matter that Richardson really isn't the player the media, the fans, the pundits, the Twitters, the internet, the Alabama, the world has made him out to be.  What matters is we are pissed.

This is another sign that the team is not winning now.  This is another example of the "rebuilding process".  This is another example of "out with the old, in with the new".  This is another example of two years to show yourself or you ware shown the door.  This is another set of suits telling us what is right.  Yet every suit has told us to sit back, accept the process and wait or the results that will come.  Only those results have always been terrible.  Those results have made things like 2007 the only glimmer of results in over a decade of false hopes.  But we need to sit back and accept.  We need to let regime bring in "their" players.  We need to allow this to happen.  Because eventually, through the law of averages, it is going to work.  Eventually, somehow, someway, the Browns will be good.


As always, read & discuss.  You can reach me on Twitter @ClevRocks_James or comment your (dis)agreements below.

Sep 18, 2013

Week 3 Shuffle: Defense Special Teams

Listed are the Top 25 D/STs for the upcoming week.  Rankings are based on the projected mean performance without any specific team context on who you should start.  Sometimes you need to start the lower of two players due to upside or a high floor, so things are fluid.  As always, players can move up or down as we approach kickoff.  So please indulge yourself & dissect our list from top to bottom.  Let's Go!

Tier 1:
1. Seattle Seahawks vs JAC
2. New England Patriots vs TB
3. Denver Broncos vs OAK
4. Chicago Bears @PIT
5. San Francisco 49ers vs IND
6. Minnesota Vikings vs CLE
7. Houston Texans @BAL
8. Dallas Cowboys vs STL
9. Cleveland Browns @MIN
10. Atlanta Falcons @MIA
11. Baltimore Ravens vs HOU
12. Tennessee Titans vs SD

 - After what the Seahawks did last week to the 49ers at home anything short of a 20 point performance is going to be seen against the Chad Henne led Jaguars.  The back half of these rankings (Vikings, Cowboys, Browns, Falcons & Titans) are all commodities that should see their ownership rise as the week progresses.  Everyone is a viable start against a weak opponent.

Tier 2:
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers @NE
14. Buffalo Bills @NYJ
15. Pittsburgh Steelers vs CHI
16. St. Louis Rams @DAL
17. Miami Dolphins vs ATL
18. San Diego Chargers @TEN
19. New York Jets @BUF
20. Cincinnati Bengals vs GB
21. New Orleans Saints vs ARI
22. Arizona Cardinals @NO
23. Kansas City Chiefs @PHI
24. Philadelphia Eagles vs KC
25. Green Bay Packers @CIN

- Excluding the Bengals, everyone listed here should making a weekly home on the waiver wire.  The Steelers & Packers are not the same two defenses that have been seeing the field the past few years and should be owned accordingly.  Excluding leagues over 12 owners, no one else here should be owned heading into Week 3.

Check out all our Week 2 Rankings: QB RB WR TE LB DL DB K D/ST

As always, read & discuss.  You can reach me on Twitter @ClevRocks_James or comment your (dis)agreements below.

Week 3 Shuffle: Kicker

Listed are the Top 25 Ks for the upcoming week.  Rankings are based on the projected mean performance without any specific team context on who you should start.  Sometimes you need to start the lower of two players due to upside or a high floor, so things are fluid.  As always, players can move up or down as we approach kickoff.  So please indulge yourself & dissect our list from top to bottom.  Let's Go!

Tier 1:
1. Blair Walsh vs CLE
2. Sebastian Janikowski @DEN
3. Josh Brown @CAR
4. Matt Prater vs OAK
5. Garrett Hartley vs ARI
6. Dan Bailey vs STL
7. Alex Henery vs KC
8. Stephen Gostkowski vs TB
9. Greg Zuerlein @DAL
10. Steven Hauschka vs JAC
11. David Akers @WAS
12. Matt Bryant @MIA

 - These kickers have nice matchups.  Henery is attached to the Chip Kelly offense and should see strong results the rest of the year.  Zuerlein & Bailey should see a few FG opportunities each with Hauschka, Akers & Bryant looking to be extra point specialists this week.

Tier 2:
13. Caleb Sturgis vs ATL
14. Rob Bironas vs SD
15. Nick Novak @TEN
16. Ryan Succop @PHI
17. Nick Folk vs BUF
18. Mason Crosby @CIN
19. Jay Feely @NO
20. Mike Nugent vs GB
21. Robbie Gould @PIT
22. Justin Tucker vs HOU
23. Phil Dawson vs IND
24. Graham Gano vs NYG
25. Randy Bullock @BAL

- Unless you're in a league with over 12 members no one here should be rostered.  Kickers are a commodity that you shouldn't be tied into for anything more then a week at a time.  Tucker, Dawson & Bullock owners should move on.

Check out all our Week 2 Rankings: QB RB WR TE LB DL DB K D/ST


As always, read & discuss.  You can reach me on Twitter @ClevRocks_James or comment your (dis)agreements below.