The Edelman Dilemma

New England has been the land of fantasy dreams over the past decade.  These past ten years anyone who cared to pay attention has realized Bill Belicheck is a man amongst boys when it comes to offensive innovation.  Sure Chip Kelly looked great on Monday night slicing up a San Diego defense that constantly looked gassed, but Mr. Belicheck has a wee bit stronger track record.  Every owner tied to the 2007 Patriots remembers how Tom Brady & Randy Moss pushed their team into the fantasy playoffs.  Every Sunday kickoff was a passing clinic on how to carve the Nickle corner up like a turkey.  Even before they revolutionized the passing game, wide outs like Troy Brown, David Givens and David Patton saw their careers and fantasy stocks rise like mercury when attached to the New England offense.  Every year on draft day multiple Patriot receivers always find a way onto a fantasy owners team, expecting the one to be the big thing.

Enter Julian Edelman.  Largely overlooked during our sessions with chicken wings and beer, the former Kent State quarterback jumped to number one on our waiver wires following his 7-79-2 performance Week 1 against the Bills.  Tom Brady & Co. are dealing with drastic measures, as Wes Welker the offense that made him to join the Greatest Show on Tundra.  Aaron Hernandez found himself incarcerated for a murder tied with his desire to join The Rock and the Gridiron Gang.  Rob Gronkowski went under the knife with the timetable to return unknown, and even Week 1 hero Shane Vereen now finds himself on the sidelines until at least Week 11.  All signs point towards an Edelman breakout in the greater Boston area, only it isn't going to happen.

Edelman entered the Belicheck offense in only his second week as a pro, hauling in 8 passes for 98 yards in a Week 2 loss against the Jets in 2009.  This year he enters a Week 2 game against the Jets with expectations almost surpassing that rookie year performance.  The only problem, between the 206 weeks between that 2009 game and Week 1 (and the 63 regular season games that come with it) Edelman has caught over 75 yards a whopping one time.  That game was Week 16 in 2009 when the entire Patriots squad was participating in a game that took place entirely during garbage time.  Hell, Edelman has caught over 4 balls (4!) 3 times.  For comparison, Greg Little has 12 games with 5+ catches in half the time span.

Even heading into this year, there were no guarantees that Edelman's roster spot was safe.  The Patriots grabbed Aaron Dobson (2nd round) & Josh Boyce (4th round) in the draft and had undrafted Kenbrell Thompkins leading the offseason in fantasy buzz.  There is no reason anyone should expect Edelman to be the savior in New England.  Belicheck has seen the guy on the practice field for the past three years and knows his limitations.  Julian is an okay 4th WR who can play special teams and sub in as a 6th DB better then anyone else out there, but he isn't going to leap into the roll of Tom Brady's go to guy.

Maybe Edelman will repeat least weeks performance.  Maybe Week 3 there will be stats that are acceptable to the fantasy community, but come Week 10 this man is not going to be on any rosters.  He is worth a plug-&-play spot right now, with a banged up Danny Amendola doubtful, but he isn't casting a season long crown.  Someone between Dobson, Boyce, Thompkins & Sudfeld is going to step up and then Julian can go back to getting his 3 special teams tackles a game.

Sell high.  Sell low.  Sell now.  Sell.  Sell.  Sell

Week 2 Shuffle: Defensive Backs

Listed are the Top 36 DBs for the upcoming week.  Points are given out as follows: 1 per tackle .5 per assist 1.5 TFL 1.5 PD 3 FF 3 FR 3 INT.  Rankings are based on the projected mean performance without any specific team context on who you should start.  Sometimes you need to start the lower of two players due to upside or a high floor, so things are fluid.  As always, players can move up or down as we approach kickoff.  So please indulge yourself & dissect our list from top to bottom.  Let's Go!

Tier 1:
1. Eric Weddle @PHI
2. Charles Tillman vs MIN
3. Tim Jennings vs MIN
4. Duke Ihenacho @NYG
5. Malcolm Jenkins @TB
6. Tyvon Branch vs JAC
7. LaRon Landry vs MIA
8. Antoine Bethea vs MIA
9. Harrison Smith @CHI
10. DeAngelo Hall @GB
11. Baccari Rambo @GB
12. Brandon Boykin vs SD

- The Chicago DBs are going to have a field day with the depressing product Minnesota puts out on the field.  Weddle should be a tackling machine against the high powered Eagles offense.  Both sets of teammates (Landry & Bethea) (Hall & Rambo) have attractive matchups for multiple tackles.  Burnett would ranking higher if not for his questionable tag.

Tier 2:
13. Sam Shields vs WAS
14. Robert McClain vs STL
15. Bernard Pollard vs TEN
16. Charles Godfey @BUF
17. Roman Harper @TB
18. Eric Berry vs DAL
19. Barry Church @KC
20. Earl Thomas vs SF
21. Ryan Clark @CIN
22. Kam Chancellor vs SF
23. Mark Barron vs NO
24. Steve Gregory vs NYJ

- Boykin has big play potential and Philip Rivers will give him plenty of shots to make it happen.  Shields would see a boost into the top 10 should Burnett miss their games against the 'Skins.  Every safety on this list (Pollard, Godfrey, Harper, Berry, Church, Thomas, Clark, Chancellor, Barron & Gregory) all are going to be tackling machines.  One or more will make a big play but everyone should be home to a safe floor.  McClain is the wildcard, but I'm expecting high tackle numbers and a turnover to head his way Sunday.

Tier 3:

25. Tyrann Mathieu @ARI
26. Da'Norris Searcy vs CAR
27. Leon Hall vs PIT
28. Patrick Peterson vs DET
29. Janoris Jenkins @ATL
30. Jamarca Sanford @CHI
31. William Moore vs STL
32. Cary Williams vs SD
33. Josh Wilson @GB
34. Kyle Arrington vs NYJ

35. Eric Reed @SEA
36. Jimmy Smith vs CLE

- There are plenty of question marks with all of these guys, but enough plausible upside to warrant a start in deep leagues.  Each corner should see around 5 targets and they have enough ability to capitalize on a mistake coming there direction.  Guys like Sanford & Moore are going to hit 8 tackles and nothing else.  If you need a safe floor, they're your guys.  Mathieu should get some play making opportunities against the Carson Palmer led Cardinals but it's tough to trust him with any type of consistency this early in his career.  Update: Morgan Burnett is official out & removed from the rankings.

Check out all our Week 2 Rankings: QB RB WR TE D/ST K LB DL DB


As always, read & discuss.  You can reach me on Twitter @ClevRocks_James or comment your (dis)agreements below.  Thanks for reading.

Week 2 Shuffle: Defensive Line

Listed are the Top 36 DLs for the upcoming week.  Points are given out as follows: 1 per tackle .5 per assist 1.5 TFL 1.5 PD 3 FF 3 FR 3 INT.  Rankings are based on the projected mean performance without any specific team context on who you should start.  Sometimes you need to start the lower of two players due to upside or a high floor, so things are fluid.  As always, players can move up or down as we approach kickoff.  So please indulge yourself & dissect our list from top to bottom.  Let's Go!

Tier 1:
1. J.J. Watt vs TEN
2. Calais Campbell vs DET
3. Jared Allen @CHI
4. Rob Nincovich vs NYJ
5. Lamarr Houston vs JAC
6. Trent Cole vs SD
7. Justin Tuck vs DEN
8. Chandler Jones vs NYJ
9. Carlos Dunlap vs PIT
10. Elvis Dumerviel vs CLE
11. Jason Hunter vs JAC
12. Jason Pierre-Paul vs DEN

- I'd be surprised if there was any week where J.J. Watt wasn't listed in the top 3, he's just that damn good.  Campbell should have a field day against an uninspiring Lions offensive line.  Both Houston & Hunter should rack up sacks against a disgusting Jacksonville front.  Odds are whoever is playing the Jaguars will have at least one DL in the top 12 as the year goes on.  Everyone else is typically a top DL performer, so we won't see much of the common variance in DLs as normal in Week 2.

Tier 2:
13. DeMarcus Ware @KC
14. Cameron Wake @IND
15. Cameron Jordan @TB
16. Derrick Morgan @HOU
17. Julius Peppers vs MIN
18. Geno Atkins vs PIT
19. Kroy Biermann vs STL
20. Robert Quinn @ATL
21. Charles Johnson @BUF
22. Greg Hardy @BUF
23. Mario Williams vs CAR
24. Muhammed Wilkerson @NE

- Ware being held without a tackle week one is probably just a mix of running a new defensive scheme & variance but anyone who used a high pick on him has reason to be worried if he doesn't show up again in Week 2.  Geno Atkins & Julius Peppers were also held scoreless, but against a Pouncey-less OL in Pittsburgh & a scared Christian Ponder they should rack up multiple tackles behind the line of scrimmage.  Biermann has a great matchup against a lackluster Rams squad while three edge rushers from the Cam Newton/E.J. Manuel game see themselves as viable DL2s.


Tier 3:
25. Dion Jordan @IND
26. Shea McClellin vs MIN
27. Haloti Ngata vs CLE
28. Stephen Paea vs MIN
29. Chris Long vs ATL
30. Desmond Bryant @BAL
31. Corey Peters vs STL
32. Whitney Mercilus vs TEN
33. Fletcher Cox vs SD
34. Brett Kiesel @CIN
35. Jason Babin @OAK
36. Brian Robison @CHI

- Jordan making his presence felt Week 1 was a pleasant surprise.  The DTs on this list (Ngata, Paea, Peters, & Cox) all have friendly matchups that can result in stocking stuffer tackle numbers.  Long, Mercilus, Babin & Robison are all high upside plays but they also have the opportunity to disappoint.  Kiesel should rack up another 4+ tackle game against the Bengals, but there isn't much upside beyond that.

Check out all our Week 2 Rankings: QB RB WR TE D/ST K LB DL DB


As always, read & discuss.  You can reach me on Twitter @ClevRocks_James or comment your (dis)agreements below.  Thanks for reading.

Week 2 Shuffle: Linebackers

Listed are the Top 36 LBs for the upcoming week.  Points are given out as follows: 1 per tackle .5 per assist 1.5 TFL 1.5 PD 3 FF 3 FR 3 INT.  Rankings are based on the projected mean performance without any specific team context on who you should start.  Sometimes you need to start the lower of two players due to upside or a high floor, so things are fluid.  As always, players can move up or down as we approach kickoff.  So please indulge yourself & dissect our list from top to bottom.  Let's Go!

Tier 1:
1. Jerod Mayo vs NYJ
2. London Fletcher @GB
3. Donald Butler @PHI
4. Lavonte David vs NO
5. Clay Matthews vs WAS
6. Luke Kuechly @BUF
7. Perry Riley @GB
8. Paul Posluszny @OAK
9. D'Qwell Jackson @BAL
10. Wesley Woodyard @NYG
11. Mychal Kendricks vs SD
12. Bront Bird @PHI

- The sheer volume of plays the Eagles are running vaults and ordinary linebacker in LB1 status this week. Donald Bulter is normally a decent LB2 but he catapults to the top of the charts against Vick & Co. with Bront Bird making an appearance until Manti Te'o comes back.  Everyone else here is a weekly play regardless, with Washington having another attractive matchup with Green Bay.

Tier 2:
13. Mason Foster vs NO
14. Nick Roach vs JAC
15. Aldon Smith @SEA
16. Karlos Dansby vs DET
17. DeMeco Ryans vs SD
18. Navarro Bowman @SEA
19. Kiko Alonso vs CAR
20. Vontaze Burfict vs PIT
21. Derrick Johnson vs DAL
22. Lance Briggs vs MIN
23. Zach Brown @HOU
24. Shaun Phillips @NYG

- Plenty of brand name players find themselves in LB2 status this week.  Streamers Nick Roach & Karlos Dansby vault up the rankings with attractive matchups.  Kiko Alonso might be the IDP steal of your draft and could be a LB1 before the year ends.  The rest of these guys offer solid floors along with the positive upside they always bring.


Tier 3:
25. James Laurinatis @ATL
26. Sean Lee @KC
27. Lawrence Timmons @CIN
28. Chad Greenway @CHI
29. Erin Henderson @CHI
30. Bobby Wagner vs SF
31. Tamba Hali vs DAL
32. Patrick Willis @SEA
33. Ryan Kerrigan @GB
34. Justin Houston vs DAL
35. Brian Cushing vs TEN
36. Bruce Carter @KC



- Linebacker is a position where consistent tackles outweigh variable sacks.  Sure Hali & Houston went off last week, but they barely crack the rankings because they are too boom or bust.  Just like Vincent Jackson at WR, you love them when they drop top 5 scores but loathe them when they put up 2 points.  Patrick Willis is a big question mark inside the best LB core in the NFL, no one is really sure where his level of play is going to settle in.  I expect both Greenway and Henderson to split stats all season making neither a true LB1 candidate.

Check out all our Week 2 Rankings: QB RB WR TE D/ST K LB DL DB

As always, read & discuss.  You can reach me on Twitter @ClevRocks_James or comment your (dis)agreements below.  Thanks for reading.

Week 2 Shuffle: Kickers

Listed are the Top 25 Kickers for the upcoming week.  Rankings are based on the projected mean performance without any specific team context on who you should start.  Sometimes you need to start the lower of two players due to upside or a high floor, so things are fluid.  As always, players can move up or down as we approach kickoff.  So please indulge yourself & dissect our list from top to bottom.  Let's Go!

Tier 1:
1. Matt Bryant vs STL
2. Matt Prater @NYG
3. Stephen Gostkowski vs NYJ
4. Justin Tucker vs CLE
5. David Akers @ARI
6. Sebastian Janikowski vs JAC
7. Garrett Hartley @TB
8. Josh Brown vs DEN
9. Greg Zuerlein @ATL
10. Dan Bailey @KC
11. Randy Bullock vs TEN
12. Alex Henery vs SD

- Kicking rankings are primarily based on where the game is taking place and who the kicker's opponent is.  There isn't much of a "surprise" inside the top 12 rankings, although Henery is owned in under 5% of ESPN leagues

Tier 2:
13. Robbie Gould vs MIN
14. Nick Novak @PHI
15. Rob Bironas @HOU
16. Caleb Sturgis @IND
17. Blair Walsh @CHI
18. Mason Crosby vs WAS
19. John Potter @GB
20. Phil Dawson @SEA
21. Jay Feely vs DET
22. Steven Hauschka vs SF
23. Mike Nugent vs PIT
24. Ryan Succop vs DAL
25. Josh Schobee @OAK

- This is just an extra list if any of the guys in the first half aren't available.  I expect the Bears/Vikings and Packers/Redskins to be extra point affairs and not feature many field goal chances.  The Seahawks/49ers game is another matchup you should keep your fantasy leg away from.  Update: Forbath officially listed at out & removed from the rankings.

Check out all our Week 2 Rankings: QB RB WR TE D/ST K LB DL DB


As always, read & discuss.  You can reach me on Twitter @ClevRocks_James or comment your (dis)agreements below.  Thanks for reading.