2021 Dynasty Start-up Rankings: WR

  So I think I am settling into a post every other day?  Maybe once I spit these final rankings I will be easier to write think pieces on individual players as opposed to big long lists that look really fun but also are very difficult to pinpoint and will be largely wrong.  Either way, it's post #4 this year which is more posts than we've had in the past 4 years so it's coming along just fine.

 Looks like I am settling into a post every other day, which means it could become a post every three or four days, and then fade into nothing this.  My current mindset is that is not that case and that once these final rankings are spit out it will be easier to write individualized pieces on certain players or groupings of players than it is to make the big, long lists.  Either way, this is post #4 on the year which is three more posts than we had all over the past four years so things are coming along just fine in my head.

Tier 1

1. Justin Jefferson - age 22

2. DK Metcalf - age 23

3. AJ Brown - age 24

4. Calvin Ridley - age 26

5. Davante Adams - age 28

This is probably the first list where I'm going to deviate heavily from the industry consensus, as not only is Tyreek Hill not in my top 5 he doesn't make my top tier, and that's the first thing people will notice.  The second, more glaring response is I think Justin Jefferson is already there.  I'm not dealing anyone for him and I think it's time to buy his stock from now until the season starts.  Metcalf and Brown are really 1B and 1C but their age differences give them an ever so slight drop off.  Ridley appears to be an absolute monster for years to come, but a looming move-on from Matt Ryan stunts his value slightly.  Adams is your #1 redraft WR but entering his age 28 season means his high end value run is closer to an end than anyone wants to admit.

Tier 2

6. CeeDee Lamb - age 22

7. Tyreek Hill - age 27

8. Ja'Marr Chase - age 21

9. Devonta Smith - age 22

10. Terry McLaurin - age 25

11. Stefon Diggs - age 27

Lamb's situation is heavily tired to Dak Prescott, but it's so appealing that the minute chance of a new QB in Dallas really doesn't affect his ranking much.  Tyreek, while still in the top 10, has red flags that I don't think anyone wants to admit, as his game is entirely speed based and tied to having Kelce as the dominate threat underneath.  The odds of Tyreek losing a step, Kelce losing his dominance, or some other dent in the Kansas City offense's armor is closer on the horizon than anyone will admit.  I'm not buying the long-term #1 offense status in KC (I'll buy top 5 or top 10).  Chase and Smith we still don't have teams so they are hard to rank, but they certainly are elite talents.  McLaurinF1 is a Davante Adams level weapon and all he needs is a QB, or maybe he doesn't need that at all.  Diggs will remain consistently around the top 10 and easily could rank higher, but I just couldn't find a way to get him in the top 10.

Tier 3

12. Amari Cooper - age 27

13. Mike Evans - age 27

14. Chase Claypool - age 23

15. Tee Higgins - age 22

16. Diontae Johnson - age 25

17. DeAndre Hopkins - age 29

18. Michael Thomas - age 28

19. Keenan Allen - age 29

20. DJ Moore - age 24

21. Chris Godwin - age 25

22. Tyler Boyd - age 26

23. Kenny Golladay - age 27

Cooper and Evans are tied to elite offenses and have shown they can be WR1s, but they also have questions as to whether they will remain the focal point of their teams offense moving forward.  Claypool and Higgins project to grow under offenses that should get better.  Johnson's drops are way overstated and the bigger threat to his value is the loss of Big Ben (and not having a suitable replacement).  Hopkins, Thomas and Allen are elite, but also aging quickly and in dynasty that is always a factor.  Moore seems to be trending towards a Brandin Cooks career where his numbers are always great but he somehow never seems to be a true top end WR.  Godwin, Boyd and Golladay have all shown flashes of being on the top end, but with age no longer clearly on their side.

Tier 4

24. DJ Chark - age 24

25. Rashod Bateman - age 21

26. Rondale Moore - age 21

27. Allen Robinson - age 27

28. Jerry Jeudy - age 22

29. Odell Beckham Jr - age 28

30. Will Fuller V - age 27

31. Gabriel Davis - age 22

32. Laviska Shenault - age 22

33. Chris Olave - age 21

34. Jaylen Waddle - age 22

35. JuJu Smith-Schuster - age 24

36. Justyn Ross - age 21

37. Terrace Marshall - age 21

38. Tyler Lockett - age 28

39. Adam Thielen - age 30

The drop off between Tier 3 and Tier 4 is pretty heavy as there are plenty of reasons to have concern or optimism here.  Youth is readily available, as are dependable veterans, but no one in this tier has a "must draft me" sign strapped to their back.

Tier 5

40. Courtland Sutton - age 25

41. Brandin Cooks - age 27

42. Corey Davis - age 26

43 Marquise Brown - age 24

44. DeVante Parker - age 28

45 Christian Kirk - age 24

46. Jamison Crowder - age 28

47. Curtis Samuel - age 25

48. Robert Woods - age 29

49. Julio Jones - age 32

50. Cooper Kupp - age 28

51. Preston Williams - age 24

52. Jalen Reagor - age 22

53. KJ Hamler - age 22

54. Henry Ruggs - age 22

55. Amon-ra St. Brown - age 21

56. Tylan Wallace - age 22

57. Tamorrion Terry - age 21

58. Darnell Mooney - age 23

59. Tutu Atwell - age 21

60. Denzel Mims - age 23

61. Seth Williams - age 21

62. Michael Pittman Jr. - age 23

63. Amari Rodgers - age 21

64. Dyami Brown - age 21

There's a whole bunch of "well if [Team X] doesn't sign anyone new or [Player Y] signs with this team or [Player Z] gets drafted into a good situation" in this tier.  It''s just hard to predict those things going right for everyone.

Tier 6

65. Deebo Samuel - age 25

66. Michael Gallup - age 25

67. Jarvis Landry - age 28

68. Robby Anderson - age 28

69. Darius Slayton - age 24

70. Keke Coutee - age 24

71. TY Hilton - age 31

72. Mecole Hardman - age 23

73. Nico Collins - age 21

74. Anthony Schwartz - age 21

75. Mike Williams - age 26

76. Parris Campbell - age 24

77. Devin Duvernay - age 23

78. Cole Beasley - age 32

79. Russell Gage - age 25

80. Sterling Shepard - age 28

81. John Brown - age 31

82. Jakobi Meyers - age 24

Things are getting bleaker here, but you can still find optimism.  I'm just finding more pessimism than optimism.

Tier 7

83. Donovan Peoples-Jones - age 22

84. Bryan Edwards - age 22

85. N'Keal Harry - age 23

86. Quintez Cephus - age 23

87. Dazz Newsome - age 22

88. Ihmir Smith-Marsette - age 22

89. Damonte Coxie - age 22

90. Kadarius Toney - age 22

91. Trevon Grimes - age 22

92. Marlon Williams - age 22

93. Sage Surratt - age 23

94. Marvin Jones - age 31

It's the tier of unknown youth and Marvin Jones unknown free agency landing spot.

Tier 8

95. Allen Lazard - age 25

96. Tyler Johnson - age 23

97. Travis Fulgham - age 25

98. Van Jefferson - age 25

99. James Washington - age 25

100. Zach Pascal - age 26

101. Antonio Brown - age 33

102. Sammy Watkins - age 28

103. Josh Reynolds - age 26

104. Rashard Higgins - age 26

105. Colin Johnson - age 23

106. Scotty Miller - age 24

107. Hunter Renfrow - age 25

108. AJ Green - age 33

109. Keelan Cole - age 28

You're not drafting anyone here expecting production, but enough things could go wrong for their team that one of these guys has to step up and can put up weekly numbers.

Tier 9

110. Marquez Valdes-Scantling - age 27

111. David Moore - age 26

112. Tim Patrick - age 28

113. Miles Boykin - age 24

114. Emmanuel Sanders - age 34

115. Nelson Agholor - age 28

116. Antonio Gandy-Golden - age 23

117. Kelvin Harmon - age 23

118. Andy Isabella - age 24

119. Tre'Quan Smith - age 25

120. Anthony Miller - age 26

121. Breshad Perriman - age 27

122. Steven Sims - age 24

123. Auden Tate - age 24

124. JJ Arcega-Whiteside - age 24

125. Golden Tate - age 33

It's really bleak here.  You can try and convince yourself that there is value, but that's all your doing.

2021 Dynasty Start-up Rankings: RB

 Look, it was decided that on Sundays I'm not going to post.  I'm going to focus on watching football and enjoying that and not being a slave to my content (maybe I was also lazy, who knows).  3 posts in 4 days is still good, and I'm sticking to that statement regardless of whether or not you tell me I'm slipping in dedication.  It's fine (maybe).

Tier 1

1. Christian McCaffrey - age 25

2. Saquon Barkley - age 24

3. Alvin Kamara - age 26

There are always question marks with RBs, just looking at the top Tier you have two guys coming off largely MIA campaigns and another one who disappears when the backup QB plays.  That said, when these guys are on the field with the right personnel they are the premium players at their position and are still in their prime.  One could argue Kamara entering his age 26 season might not be worth this value in a dynasty start-up but RBs who are receiving backs generally age well and I'm not going fade the team who kept Darren Sproles relevant well into his 30s.

Tier 2

4. Jonathan Taylor - age 22

5. Nick Chubb - age 25

6. Ezekiel Elliott - age 26

7. Dalvin Cook - age 26

8. James Robinson - age 23

9. JK Dobbins - age 22

10. Antonio Gibson - age 23

11. D'Andre Swift - age 22

12. David Montgomery - age 24

13. Miles Sanders - age 24

14. Josh Jacobs - age 23

Everyone in this tier is either projected to continue to move forward on a linear age progression chart or maintain in the case of Elliott and Cook.  Taylor appears to have the most future talent left in the tank, but I'm not in enough love with his situation in IND to bump him to the top tier.  Chubb will be splitting carries with Hunt, Robinson has to make sure a new coaching staff doesn't give up on him or reduce his workload drastically, and everyone else needs to take one more step forward to truly become elite.

Tier 3

15. Ronald Jones - age 24

16. Cam Akers - age 22

17. Joe Mixon - age 25

18. Travis Etienne - age 22

19. Clyde Edwards-Helaire - age 22

20. Javonte Williams - age 21

21. Austin Ekeler - age 26

22. Derrick Henry - age 28

23. Aaron Jones - age 26

Everyone in this tier has the same type of question marks in Tier 2, but they run a bit deeper.  Will Jones, Akers or CEH really get the full workload? Will Mixon stay healthy and also take a step forward?  Where will Etienne and Williams land and will they get playing time?  Will Ekeler's new coaching staff keep him as the team's workhorse?  Does Derrick Henry age?  Will Aaron Jones resign with the Packers or fade into a sunset?  There is plenty of upside with every player here, but the downside looms larger than anyone in Tier 2.

Tier 4

24. AJ Dillon - age 23

25. Kareem Hunt - age 26

26. Zack Moss - age 23

27. Devin Singletary - age 24

28. Jaret Patterson - age 21

29. Kenneth Gainwell - age 22

30. Michael Carter - age 22

31. Najee Harris - age 23

32. Trey Sermon - age 22

33. Chuba Hubbard - age 22

34. Melvin Gordon - age 28

This tear is consists of three types of backs.  Players who if you remove other players from their current backfield, they could vault into the RB1 conversation, rookies who don't have a team yet, and Melvin Gordon.

Tier 5

35. Damien Harris - age 24

36. Rashaad Penny - age 25

37. Alexander Mattison - age 23

38. Tony Pollard - age 24

39. Darrell Henderson - age 24

40. Nyheim Hines - age 24

41. Justice Hill - age 23

42. Myles Gaskin - age 24

43. Lynn Bowden - age 23

44. Master Teague - age 21

45. Rhamondre Stevenson - age 22

46. Zamir White - age 22

47. James Conner - age 26

48. Ke'Shawn Vaughn - age 24

There are question marks galore in this tier.  Plenty of young-ish talent tied to great team situations along with rookies who don't know where they'll go and a free agent in James Conner who appears to be on the backside of his career but also seems to be the best option for Pittsburgh at the moment.

Tier 6

49. Kylin Hill - age 23

50. Demetric Felton - age 23

51. DeeJay Dallas - age 22

52. Kennedy Brooks - age 22

53. Javian Hawkins - age 22

54. JaMycal Hasty - age 24

55. Sony Michel - age 26

56. Chris Carson - age 27

57. David Johnson - age 29

58. Marlon Mack - age 25

59. Kenyan Drake - age 27

60. Leonard Fournette - age 26

61. JD McKissic - age 28

62. Tarik Cohen - age 26

63. La'Mical Perine - age 23

64. Joshua Kelley - age 23

65. Chase Edmonds - age 25

66. Kerryon Johnson - age 24

67. Ryquell Armstead - age 24

68. Gus Edwards - age 26

69. Raheem Mostert - age 29

There is nothing in this tier that says buy.  You have rookies who are not projected to get much playing time and will need some help to find carriers, and then veterans who are free agents who don't appear to be going anywhere to get more carries.  This is the tier where you can still hit the jackpot, but the likelihood is super low.

Tier 7

70. Anthony McFarland Jr. - age 23

71. Benny Snell Jr. - age 23

72. Darrynton Evans - age 23

73. Trayveon Williams - age 23

74. Ty Johnson - age 23

75. Mohamed Ibrahim - age 23

76. Jamaal Williams - age 26

77. Damien Williams - age 29

78. Duke Johnson - age 27

79. Ito Smith - age 25

80. Gio Bernard - age 29

81. Justin Jackson - age 25

82. Phillip Lindsay - age 27

83. Wayne Gallman - age 26

84. Le'Veon Bell - age 29

85. Royce Freeman - age 25

86. Mark Ingram - age 31

87. Bryce Love - age 24

88. Derrius Guice - age 24

89. Todd Gurley - age 27

90. Eno Benjamin - age 22

91. Salvon Ahmed - age 22

92. Jaylen Samuels - age 25

93. Darwin Thompson - age 25

94. Kalen Ballage - age 25

95. Jeff Wilson - age 26

96. Jeremy McNichols - age 25

97. Latavius Murray - age 31

98. Jordan Wilkins - age 27

99. Travis Homer - age 23

100. Mike Davis - age 28

Everything in this tier is about finding a needle in a haystack.  Last year Mike Davis was that needle as he filled in for CMC and became a weekly RB1.  Someone in here will do that again in 2021, but everyone else will be roster fodder.  You don't want these guys.

2021 Dynasty Start-up Rankings: QB

 We are two days into 2021 and there are two posts on this blog in 2021, this is an accomplishment that cannot go unrecognized.  The amount of effort put into this place has already surpassed all the (nonexistent) hard work we put in from 2015-2020.  I'm not really sure who to thank at this point, since it's all just two rankings posts but you get my point.  The effort level has been raised and we are going to try and sustain this level of effort for as long as possible.  Let's see how it goes.

Tier 1

1. Patrick Mahomes - age 25

If you don't have Patrick Mahomes in a tier all by himself there are only two options: 1. You are looking to get views/hits/engagement/whatever and are "embracing debate" as to why someone else is on his level when you know it is not true, or 2. You very bad at this.  It's very difficult to be able to claim something is outright wrong in fantasy football, but if you place someone else on Patrick Mahomes level there is no question about it, you are wrong.

Tier 2

2. Kyler Murray - age 24

3. Lamar Jackson - age 24

4. Deshaun Watson - age 25

Murray is the clear cut #2 and while this season has been all doom and gloom for Lamar Jackson apologists as the Ravens have been exceedingly mediocre and Jackson has barely been a top 12 QB, but when you look deeper and see the Ravens withheld JK Dobbins for far too long and will likely take a WR near the top of their draft you see Lamar's stock coming back to prominence.  The saying is that the NFL is a "what have you done for me lately?" league and Lamar is no exception (and neither is Watson who has been stuck in an awful situation in Houston) but these guys are at the bottom end of their value right now.  Dynasty is about predicting the future, and we know well and good things aren't going to get worse for these two, only better.

Tier 3

5. Dak Prescott - age 28

6. Trevor Lawrence - age 21

7. Russell Wilson - age 32

8. Joe Burrow - age 24

9. Josh Allen - age 25

10. Justin Herbert - age 23

11. Tua Tagovailoa - age 23

12. Justin Fields - age 22

13. Zach Wilson - age 21

The immediate ranking that will jump out is how Josh Allen barely cracks single digits.  Everything has gone perfect for Allen so far in his career, from finding the best coach for his skills to acquiring Stefon Diggs this year, and while that has made him a top tier QB in 2020 moving forward these things aren't going to continually get better.  He's very good, much better than most thought he would be coming out of college, but projecting him forward in a dynasty I am still bullish.  Dak could easily get bumped up a tier but with the minute chances of him leaving Dallas mixed with the minute chances he come back a step slow from injury he doesn't get the bump.  Wilson's age and late season decline along with Burrow's injury leave you with more question marks than you'd like.  Lawrence should be a start but we all know landing spot is key.  The back half of the list is young players with great potential that could get squandered but likely won't.

Tier 4

14. Aaron Rodgers - age 37

15. Jared Goff - age 26

16. Ryan Tannehill - age 33

17. Baker Mayfield - age 26

18. Jalen Hurts - age 23

19. Kirk Cousins - age 33

20. Trey Lance - age 21

21. Mac Jones - age 23

I considered putting Rodgers in a tier all by himself, as he should continue to be great, but the Packers also drafted Love for a reason and he might get a Favre-ian exit sooner rather than later.  Goff, Tannehill, Mayfield and Cousins all appear to be locked into the good but not great range while Hurts, Lance and Jones all have extremely high variance.

Tier 5

22. Matthew Stafford - age 33

23. Jordan Love - age 22

24. Matt Ryan - age 36

25. Daniel Jones - age 24

26. Sam Darnold - age 24

27. Teddy Bridgewater - age 28

28. Derek Carr - age 30

29. Taysom Hill - age 31

30. Kyle Allen - age 24

31. Carson Wentz - age 28

32. Kyle Trask - age 23

We're entering the part of the list where there are significant questions everywhere, but also a predictable path to playing time.

Tier 6

33. Ben Roethlisberger - age 39

34. Tom Brady - age 44

35. Drew Brees - age 42

36. Jameis Winston - age 27

37. Mitchell Trubisky - age 27

38. Drew Lock - age 24

39. Jimmy Garoppolo - age 29

40. Kenny Pickett - age 22

41. Jamie Newman - age 23

42. Shane Buechele - age 23

43. Desmond Ridder - age 23

44. Cam Newton - age 32

45. Phillip Rivers - age 39

46. Jacoby Brissett - age 28

47. Gardner Minshew - age 25

48. Marcus Mariota - age 27

49. Alex Smith - age 37

50. Andy Dalton  age 33

This list is full of QBs who are too old for anyone to want to invest any significant draft and the other half is full of QBs who may never start again, but also could be the next Tannehill.

2021 Dynasty Start-up Rankings: TE

 There sure is nothing else like a brand spanking new calendar year that gets people to re-invest into their defunct projects.  For me, that's typing up this here post, editing it, and then pressing that big orange publish button in the upper right hand corner so that my legions of anywhere between 0 to 5 followers read my thoughts on what the 2021 Dynasty Rankings at the TE position should be on January 1st, 2021.  My ability to sustain any momentum when it comes to this site is extremely fleeting, but now that the calendar has flipped I can convince myself that there is optimism in writing and I'm going to give it a go once more.  The over/under odds in Vegas for 1.5 total posts in 2021 (including this one) is dead even and I have fictional pit bosses texting me constantly for updates.  We'll see how I do.

Tier 1

1. George Kittle - age 27

We'll get to in more in the next tier, but the general consensus is that this tier should only have one player, but that player isn't George Kittle.  My reasoning for placing Kittle, alone, in the top tier is simple: he can improve in many areas in 2021.  He has yet to play a full season, he has yet to have an elite QB, he has yet to have a game-changing WR line up with him, and one or all of these things can change next season.  Sure he might still get stuck with Jimmy G, or maybe Brandon Aiyuk somehow takes a step lateral next year, but things look good moving forward.  At a young 27, Kittle has plenty of life left in his bones to give you 4 or 5 elite seasons with the opportunity to grow.

Tier 2

2. Darren Waller - age 28

3. Mark Andrews - age 25

4. TJ Hockenson - age 24

5. Travis Kelce - age 31

Waller could have found himself in our top tier, but he doesn't have the obvious upside that Kittle does.  For one, Waller already sees his lions share of targets from one of the best checkdown QBs in the league.  We saw Oakland wants to add more passing game weapons when they drafted Henry Ruggs, and while Waller certainly is elite, he's not Kittle.  Andrews and Hockenson are both members of the no-longer-sexy-names-and-just-put-up-very-solid-numbers-at-a-very-young-age club.  No one in your draft is going to think you made a great pick when you take them, and that's on them.  Consistency is key in fantasy sports, and both of these guys will be putting up consistent numbers once everyone else in the top 5 is no longer a fantasy asset.  After the initial shock wears off, I hope you realize that Kelce is 6 months younger than Gronk and has never played less than 15 games in a season.  That's real wear.  Sure, he's tied to the best offense with the best QB in the league, with one of the top field stretching WRs in the league, but are those things going to remain going forward?  I'm not doomsday predicting that any of these things collapse, but I'm also not expecting there to be no change going forward.  Kelce has had a perfect environment that past few years and I don't expect things to stay the same because they never do.

Tier 3

6. Kyle Pitts - age 21

7. Hunter Henry - age 26

8. Irv Smith Jr. - age 23

9. Mike Gesicki - age 25

10. Evan Engram - age 27

11. Jonnu Smith - age 26

12. Noah Fant - age 23

13. Zach Ertz - age 30

These are just rankings for today, so without knowing where Pitts or Henry are going its hard to know where to place them, but their talent alone means ranking them above sub-optimal landing spots for the guys below.  Smith's ranking is aggressive, but given all the other options in Minnesota he should be plenty of chances to get great matchups single coverage.  Gesicki's, Engram's, and Fant's rankings are all tied to their QBs.  Jonnu seems to have stuck in an offense that only needs him a few times a game, and it's very likely he and Irv Smith have similar numbers in 2020.  Ertz is a wildcard since he is older, has no clear QB, and might not have a new coach but has put up elite numbers very recently.

Tier 4

14. Dalton Schultz - age 25

15. Logan Thomas - age 30

16. O.J. Howard - age 26

17. Dallas Goedert - age 26

18. Drew Sample - age 25

19. Harrison Bryant - age 23

20. Austin Hooper - age 26

These guys are all high variant plays, where the amount of question marks mixed with great opportunity will lead to highly divergent results.

Tier 5

21. Cole Kmet - age 22

22. Adam Trautman - age 24

23. Dawson Knox - age 24

24. David Njoku - age 25

25. Robert Tonyan - age 27

26. Eric Ebron - age 28

27. Josh Oliver - age 24

28. Hayden Hurst - age 28

29. Tyler Higbee - age 29

30. Pat Freiermuth - age 22

31. Will Dissly - age 25

32. Gerald Everett - age 27

33. Mo-Allie Cox - age 28

34. Chris Herndon - age 25

35. Ian Thomas - age 26

36. Blake Jarwin - age 27

37. Kyle Rudolph - age 32

Everyone in this has some sort of setback tied to their current status that is going to hold them from being every day players at the moment.

Tier 6

38. Jace Sternberger - age 25

39. Brevin Jordan - age 21

40. Brycen Hopkins - age 24

41. Richard Rodgers - age 29

42. Foster Moreau - age 24

43. Dalton Keene - age 22

44. Jordan Akins - age 29

45. Jake Ferguson - age 21

46. Charlie Kolar - age 22

47. Kahale Warring - age 24

48. Devin Asiasi - age 24

49. Adam Shaheen - age 26

50. Trey Burton - age 29

These are some shot in the dark young guns or very unsexy, unlikely to go off old guns.