So I think I am settling into a post every other day? Maybe once I spit these final rankings I will be easier to write think pieces on individual players as opposed to big long lists that look really fun but also are very difficult to pinpoint and will be largely wrong. Either way, it's post #4 this year which is more posts than we've had in the past 4 years so it's coming along just fine.
Looks like I am settling into a post every other day, which means it could become a post every three or four days, and then fade into nothing this. My current mindset is that is not that case and that once these final rankings are spit out it will be easier to write individualized pieces on certain players or groupings of players than it is to make the big, long lists. Either way, this is post #4 on the year which is three more posts than we had all over the past four years so things are coming along just fine in my head.
Tier 1
1. Justin Jefferson - age 22
2. DK Metcalf - age 23
3. AJ Brown - age 24
4. Calvin Ridley - age 26
5. Davante Adams - age 28
This is probably the first list where I'm going to deviate heavily from the industry consensus, as not only is Tyreek Hill not in my top 5 he doesn't make my top tier, and that's the first thing people will notice. The second, more glaring response is I think Justin Jefferson is already there. I'm not dealing anyone for him and I think it's time to buy his stock from now until the season starts. Metcalf and Brown are really 1B and 1C but their age differences give them an ever so slight drop off. Ridley appears to be an absolute monster for years to come, but a looming move-on from Matt Ryan stunts his value slightly. Adams is your #1 redraft WR but entering his age 28 season means his high end value run is closer to an end than anyone wants to admit.
Tier 2
6. CeeDee Lamb - age 22
7. Tyreek Hill - age 27
8. Ja'Marr Chase - age 21
9. Devonta Smith - age 22
10. Terry McLaurin - age 25
11. Stefon Diggs - age 27
Lamb's situation is heavily tired to Dak Prescott, but it's so appealing that the minute chance of a new QB in Dallas really doesn't affect his ranking much. Tyreek, while still in the top 10, has red flags that I don't think anyone wants to admit, as his game is entirely speed based and tied to having Kelce as the dominate threat underneath. The odds of Tyreek losing a step, Kelce losing his dominance, or some other dent in the Kansas City offense's armor is closer on the horizon than anyone will admit. I'm not buying the long-term #1 offense status in KC (I'll buy top 5 or top 10). Chase and Smith we still don't have teams so they are hard to rank, but they certainly are elite talents. McLaurinF1 is a Davante Adams level weapon and all he needs is a QB, or maybe he doesn't need that at all. Diggs will remain consistently around the top 10 and easily could rank higher, but I just couldn't find a way to get him in the top 10.
Tier 3
12. Amari Cooper - age 27
13. Mike Evans - age 27
14. Chase Claypool - age 23
15. Tee Higgins - age 22
16. Diontae Johnson - age 25
17. DeAndre Hopkins - age 29
18. Michael Thomas - age 28
19. Keenan Allen - age 29
20. DJ Moore - age 24
21. Chris Godwin - age 25
22. Tyler Boyd - age 26
23. Kenny Golladay - age 27
Cooper and Evans are tied to elite offenses and have shown they can be WR1s, but they also have questions as to whether they will remain the focal point of their teams offense moving forward. Claypool and Higgins project to grow under offenses that should get better. Johnson's drops are way overstated and the bigger threat to his value is the loss of Big Ben (and not having a suitable replacement). Hopkins, Thomas and Allen are elite, but also aging quickly and in dynasty that is always a factor. Moore seems to be trending towards a Brandin Cooks career where his numbers are always great but he somehow never seems to be a true top end WR. Godwin, Boyd and Golladay have all shown flashes of being on the top end, but with age no longer clearly on their side.
Tier 4
24. DJ Chark - age 24
25. Rashod Bateman - age 21
26. Rondale Moore - age 21
27. Allen Robinson - age 27
28. Jerry Jeudy - age 22
29. Odell Beckham Jr - age 28
30. Will Fuller V - age 27
31. Gabriel Davis - age 22
32. Laviska Shenault - age 22
33. Chris Olave - age 21
34. Jaylen Waddle - age 22
35. JuJu Smith-Schuster - age 24
36. Justyn Ross - age 21
37. Terrace Marshall - age 21
38. Tyler Lockett - age 28
39. Adam Thielen - age 30
The drop off between Tier 3 and Tier 4 is pretty heavy as there are plenty of reasons to have concern or optimism here. Youth is readily available, as are dependable veterans, but no one in this tier has a "must draft me" sign strapped to their back.
Tier 5
40. Courtland Sutton - age 25
41. Brandin Cooks - age 27
42. Corey Davis - age 26
43 Marquise Brown - age 24
44. DeVante Parker - age 28
45 Christian Kirk - age 24
46. Jamison Crowder - age 28
47. Curtis Samuel - age 25
48. Robert Woods - age 29
49. Julio Jones - age 32
50. Cooper Kupp - age 28
51. Preston Williams - age 24
52. Jalen Reagor - age 22
53. KJ Hamler - age 22
54. Henry Ruggs - age 22
55. Amon-ra St. Brown - age 21
56. Tylan Wallace - age 22
57. Tamorrion Terry - age 21
58. Darnell Mooney - age 23
59. Tutu Atwell - age 21
60. Denzel Mims - age 23
61. Seth Williams - age 21
62. Michael Pittman Jr. - age 23
63. Amari Rodgers - age 21
64. Dyami Brown - age 21
There's a whole bunch of "well if [Team X] doesn't sign anyone new or [Player Y] signs with this team or [Player Z] gets drafted into a good situation" in this tier. It''s just hard to predict those things going right for everyone.
Tier 6
65. Deebo Samuel - age 25
66. Michael Gallup - age 25
67. Jarvis Landry - age 28
68. Robby Anderson - age 28
69. Darius Slayton - age 24
70. Keke Coutee - age 24
71. TY Hilton - age 31
72. Mecole Hardman - age 23
73. Nico Collins - age 21
74. Anthony Schwartz - age 21
75. Mike Williams - age 26
76. Parris Campbell - age 24
77. Devin Duvernay - age 23
78. Cole Beasley - age 32
79. Russell Gage - age 25
80. Sterling Shepard - age 28
81. John Brown - age 31
82. Jakobi Meyers - age 24
Things are getting bleaker here, but you can still find optimism. I'm just finding more pessimism than optimism.
Tier 7
83. Donovan Peoples-Jones - age 22
84. Bryan Edwards - age 22
85. N'Keal Harry - age 23
86. Quintez Cephus - age 23
87. Dazz Newsome - age 22
88. Ihmir Smith-Marsette - age 22
89. Damonte Coxie - age 22
90. Kadarius Toney - age 22
91. Trevon Grimes - age 22
92. Marlon Williams - age 22
93. Sage Surratt - age 23
94. Marvin Jones - age 31
It's the tier of unknown youth and Marvin Jones unknown free agency landing spot.
Tier 8
95. Allen Lazard - age 25
96. Tyler Johnson - age 23
97. Travis Fulgham - age 25
98. Van Jefferson - age 25
99. James Washington - age 25
100. Zach Pascal - age 26
101. Antonio Brown - age 33
102. Sammy Watkins - age 28
103. Josh Reynolds - age 26
104. Rashard Higgins - age 26
105. Colin Johnson - age 23
106. Scotty Miller - age 24
107. Hunter Renfrow - age 25
108. AJ Green - age 33
109. Keelan Cole - age 28
You're not drafting anyone here expecting production, but enough things could go wrong for their team that one of these guys has to step up and can put up weekly numbers.
Tier 9
110. Marquez Valdes-Scantling - age 27
111. David Moore - age 26
112. Tim Patrick - age 28
113. Miles Boykin - age 24
114. Emmanuel Sanders - age 34
115. Nelson Agholor - age 28
116. Antonio Gandy-Golden - age 23
117. Kelvin Harmon - age 23
118. Andy Isabella - age 24
119. Tre'Quan Smith - age 25
120. Anthony Miller - age 26
121. Breshad Perriman - age 27
122. Steven Sims - age 24
123. Auden Tate - age 24
124. JJ Arcega-Whiteside - age 24
125. Golden Tate - age 33
It's really bleak here. You can try and convince yourself that there is value, but that's all your doing.
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