2021 Dynasty Start-up Rankings: QB

 We are two days into 2021 and there are two posts on this blog in 2021, this is an accomplishment that cannot go unrecognized.  The amount of effort put into this place has already surpassed all the (nonexistent) hard work we put in from 2015-2020.  I'm not really sure who to thank at this point, since it's all just two rankings posts but you get my point.  The effort level has been raised and we are going to try and sustain this level of effort for as long as possible.  Let's see how it goes.

Tier 1

1. Patrick Mahomes - age 25

If you don't have Patrick Mahomes in a tier all by himself there are only two options: 1. You are looking to get views/hits/engagement/whatever and are "embracing debate" as to why someone else is on his level when you know it is not true, or 2. You very bad at this.  It's very difficult to be able to claim something is outright wrong in fantasy football, but if you place someone else on Patrick Mahomes level there is no question about it, you are wrong.

Tier 2

2. Kyler Murray - age 24

3. Lamar Jackson - age 24

4. Deshaun Watson - age 25

Murray is the clear cut #2 and while this season has been all doom and gloom for Lamar Jackson apologists as the Ravens have been exceedingly mediocre and Jackson has barely been a top 12 QB, but when you look deeper and see the Ravens withheld JK Dobbins for far too long and will likely take a WR near the top of their draft you see Lamar's stock coming back to prominence.  The saying is that the NFL is a "what have you done for me lately?" league and Lamar is no exception (and neither is Watson who has been stuck in an awful situation in Houston) but these guys are at the bottom end of their value right now.  Dynasty is about predicting the future, and we know well and good things aren't going to get worse for these two, only better.

Tier 3

5. Dak Prescott - age 28

6. Trevor Lawrence - age 21

7. Russell Wilson - age 32

8. Joe Burrow - age 24

9. Josh Allen - age 25

10. Justin Herbert - age 23

11. Tua Tagovailoa - age 23

12. Justin Fields - age 22

13. Zach Wilson - age 21

The immediate ranking that will jump out is how Josh Allen barely cracks single digits.  Everything has gone perfect for Allen so far in his career, from finding the best coach for his skills to acquiring Stefon Diggs this year, and while that has made him a top tier QB in 2020 moving forward these things aren't going to continually get better.  He's very good, much better than most thought he would be coming out of college, but projecting him forward in a dynasty I am still bullish.  Dak could easily get bumped up a tier but with the minute chances of him leaving Dallas mixed with the minute chances he come back a step slow from injury he doesn't get the bump.  Wilson's age and late season decline along with Burrow's injury leave you with more question marks than you'd like.  Lawrence should be a start but we all know landing spot is key.  The back half of the list is young players with great potential that could get squandered but likely won't.

Tier 4

14. Aaron Rodgers - age 37

15. Jared Goff - age 26

16. Ryan Tannehill - age 33

17. Baker Mayfield - age 26

18. Jalen Hurts - age 23

19. Kirk Cousins - age 33

20. Trey Lance - age 21

21. Mac Jones - age 23

I considered putting Rodgers in a tier all by himself, as he should continue to be great, but the Packers also drafted Love for a reason and he might get a Favre-ian exit sooner rather than later.  Goff, Tannehill, Mayfield and Cousins all appear to be locked into the good but not great range while Hurts, Lance and Jones all have extremely high variance.

Tier 5

22. Matthew Stafford - age 33

23. Jordan Love - age 22

24. Matt Ryan - age 36

25. Daniel Jones - age 24

26. Sam Darnold - age 24

27. Teddy Bridgewater - age 28

28. Derek Carr - age 30

29. Taysom Hill - age 31

30. Kyle Allen - age 24

31. Carson Wentz - age 28

32. Kyle Trask - age 23

We're entering the part of the list where there are significant questions everywhere, but also a predictable path to playing time.

Tier 6

33. Ben Roethlisberger - age 39

34. Tom Brady - age 44

35. Drew Brees - age 42

36. Jameis Winston - age 27

37. Mitchell Trubisky - age 27

38. Drew Lock - age 24

39. Jimmy Garoppolo - age 29

40. Kenny Pickett - age 22

41. Jamie Newman - age 23

42. Shane Buechele - age 23

43. Desmond Ridder - age 23

44. Cam Newton - age 32

45. Phillip Rivers - age 39

46. Jacoby Brissett - age 28

47. Gardner Minshew - age 25

48. Marcus Mariota - age 27

49. Alex Smith - age 37

50. Andy Dalton  age 33

This list is full of QBs who are too old for anyone to want to invest any significant draft and the other half is full of QBs who may never start again, but also could be the next Tannehill.