Mar 1, 2011

Green Is NOT The Option

The Cleveland Browns have many holes to fill, one major hole being wide receiver. As we sit with the 6th pick in the upcoming draft, there are many ways in which the Browns can go. This year, there is a ton of talent up top and the Browns can get a talented player at almost any position.  One of those prospects is Georgia receive AJ Green. Green is currently 4th on ESPN’s big board and many experts are comparing him to Calvin Johnson. He is freakishly athletic and has great hands. He is almost a lock to be an immediate threat to opposing defenses with his big play ability and speed. With all that being said, it seems like the Browns have the perfect answer with the 6th pick. WRONG!
I will tell you why AJ Green is NOT the best option with the 6th pick.  Since the 2000 draft, there have been 17 WR’s taken in the top ten of the first round. Of those 17 players, and ten years, there has been only 14 Pro Bowls combined. 10 of those 14 are from Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald.  Most of them have been very expensive busts. For example, there is Peter Warrick, Travis Taylor, David Terrell, Charles Rodgers, Troy Williamson, Reggie Williams, and Mike Williams. Also on the list are Braylon and Plaxico who are talented but seem to cause more problems then stats. Out of the whole list I would say there are about 8-9 busts, 2-3 decent players, and then Andre, Calvin, and Larry.
Now lets do some math. Of those 17 players, the chances that we end up with one of those last three players named is only 17%. The chance that we end up with at least a decent player is only about 35%. And the chance that we get a so-called bust is slightly more than 50%. Are you feeling lucky? Because I sure as hell am not feeling that lucky. And remember, at one point in the draft process, every one of those players on that list were called “sure-things” by also so-called expert Mel Kiper.
Lets just say for fun that the Browns are lucky. Just imagine that Green actually ends up being a productive receiver like Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson. Now take a look at their respective teams. What have the Texans done? Agreed they are well ahead of the Browns but is that all because of Johnson? No, they have drafted early with defense and then more defense. Plus, they have not made it all the way yet. Now look at the Lions. They are a much better team to compare to the Browns. Both are small market teams who have been down for some years and are consistently in the top ten of drafts. Now the Lions are notorious for drafting WR’s in the top ten by taking Charles Rodgers, Roy Williams, and Mike Williams in three consecutive drafts. Notice them list from above? Anyways, in 2007 they drafted Calvin Johnson and in the four years have won a total of 15 games. What did the Lions do in 2010 to make it seem like they are actually rebuilding? They drafted defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh.
Is AJ Green really going to make an immediate impact? Probably a little. Is he really going to help the Browns rebuild things? Probably not. The Browns need a pass rushing defensive lineman and this draft has a million of them. Not to mention, the better teams of late have been able to find top receivers in the second and third rounds. With Titus Young and possibly Jonathan Baldwin available in the second, why not go D-line first? We know that’s what we really need to really help

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