May 17, 2011

My Cavalier Lottery Prediction

Tonight is the annual NBA Draft Lottery. We all know how luck the Cavs got back in 2003 when we landed the first pick and drafted that one guy from Akron. Yet, this year, the draft class is anything but that. Its almost certain that nobody is going to find a Dwyane Wade at the 5th spot this year. The class is significantly weaker, yet the Cavs do have two lottery picks and are ready to make an impact.

With our 19.9% chance plus the 2.8% chance from the Clippers, the Cavs have about the same chance of winning that we had in 2003. However, this year, I just don't feel like we have the luck to grab the first pick. Maybe not, as shady as the NBA playoffs are, who's to say the NBA doesn't slightly fix the lottery. Its not like there is a judge back there checking everything. Coincidence that the Cavs got LeBron and the Bulls got Rose? Thats your call?

Whether you think the lottery is rigged or not, I think i'd rather have the 2nd pick this year. Kyrie Irving seems to be the most liked pick at #1. Yet, he barely played last year and seems to be a bit small for the NBA. I would personally like to have Derrick Williams out of Arizona. To me he seems like the better NBA ready player. At 6'9'' 240, he has the size and athleticism to be a solid forward. We need a scorer and go to man and someone to take the load of the boards between Andy and JJ.

This just seems to be the year that it is ok to be second in the lottery. Lets just not hope we fall past that because we'll be in slim pickings.

1 comment:

  1. I've always thought the lottery was fixed, I don't care about the accounting firms they hire to oversee the selection process. You want too add interest, and intrigue, conduct it in front of the viewing public.

    Unlike most, including, but not limited to experts, and local media professionals, I'm not as high on Irving. This is not too say talent I wise, perceived upside included, he isn't the consensus #1 overall prospect, but is he what's most needed in Cleveland?

    I say no... The Cav's aren't as weak at the position, as when Mo Williams was the starter, post LeBron James. Williams (AZ), is my first choice as well. I think what the Cav's need most is an athletic scorer from the wing, at SF. This past season, as disappointing as it was, afforded the Cav's the opportunity to see different players, play meaningful minutes.

    What was most troubling about the Cav's, is that Scott played guys out of position continuously, all season. It was hard to truly guage what guys could do, if they were utilized in positions of strength. Eyenga, in my opinion, is a natural SG, he needs to improve his shooting, and range. It made absolutely no sense, playing Hickson at C, and Jamison at PF, when he was playing elbow out on the floor. Hickson was much more efficient, and effective, when at PF, and Hollins at C, also playing elbow down on the floor.

    Williams (AZ), has the size, and athleticism to transition too SF, he can get to the basket from the perimeter, plays under control in crowded spaces, and strong enough too post up on the blocks. I like his range on the perimeter. If I'm looking to get back into the lottery, or to gain future picks, I move Varejao, while he still has limited, perbeived value. Samuels plays bigger, and with time, and opportunity can match the production of Varejao.

    For all things Cavalier's, and NBA basketball, follow me on twitter @CLECavsOutsider